Guessing the trend of 2330(TSMC)

Using support & resistance, trend lines, Fibonacci retracement, Order block, and week FVG+.

Fun guessing. Not a trading advice.

This chart is for reference only, please use your personal analysis to trade

註釋

若下跌趨勢持續強勁，價格「可能」有機會回落到上個上升波段之起漲點(約593元附近)，去填補缺口。從圖表上來看，這個價格附近也是個「可能」成為支撐的區間。

★補充★
若不考慮一些人為制定的特殊交易規則，則市場是「有效率」的。對於市場來說，這裡的效率不是指「速度」的快慢，而是「盡量滿足所有的訂單以參與市場」，也就是「前往有較高流動性的價格附近」。例如當賣單充盈著市場，但沒有人願意買，價格必定會降低(往可能有買單的價格跑)。所以當市場處於下跌/上漲趨勢時，不要覺得價格不會到那麼低/高，只要市場的「共識」(即可能有大多數潛在的訂單)在那個價格區間，價格就會到那邊，以滿足買賣雙方彼此「都有共識」的價格交易。那麼「共識」有辦法看出來嗎？有，那就是支撐和阻力，可以看出「過去」潛在的共識價格帶。

這裡說價格會往雙方彼此「都有共識」的價格交易，是因為「有共識」的價格不一定是買賣雙方「都希望」的價格。

以上這些少少的內容給大家做一些思考。投資請量力而為，用自己的理解去交易，學會為自己每次的交易結果負責。用已經規劃好的那部分的錢來投資，不要影響到正常生活了。祝福大家都能平安度過。

If the downward trend continues to be strong, the price "may" have the opportunity to fall back to the starting point of the previous upward wave (around 593 yuan) to fill the gap. Judging from the chart, this price range is also a "possible" support range.

★Supplement★
The market is "efficient" if we ignore some special trading rules that are artificially set. For the market, efficiency here does not refer to the speed, but "trying to satisfy all orders to participate in the market", that is, "going to the price with higher liquidity". For example, when the market is flooded with sell orders but no one is willing to buy, the price will inevitably go down (towards a price where there may be buy orders). So when the market is in a downward/upward trend, don’t think that the price will not go that low/high. As long as the market’s "consensus" (that is, there may be most potential orders) is in that price range, the price will go there to satisfy the price transaction that both buyers and sellers "have a consensus on". So is there any way to see the "consensus"? Yes, that is support and resistance, which can show the potential consensus price band in the "past".

Here we say that the price will be traded towards the price that both parties "have a consensus on" because the "consensus" price is not necessarily the price that both the buyer and the seller "want".

The above few contents are just for your consideration. Please invest within your means, trade based on your own understanding, and learn to be responsible for the results of each transaction. Use the money that has been planned to invest so as not to affect your normal life. I hope everyone can get through this safely.

註釋

【4/10 更新】
繼連續的下跌、跌停之後，4/9的價格最低點來到780元附近觸碰週區間買方訂單塊(圖表中標示為「Week OB+」) 內的趨勢通道線，同時也滿足斐波那契回撤0.382區間附近，於今日4/10出現激烈的反轉上升來到863元。但由於考量目前的價格走勢「背景」是處於下跌趨勢，故在還沒有出現破壞下跌趨勢的價格走勢之前，仍要合理假設這波上漲拉回是短暫的。預測較可能的反轉點大約會落在905~952的區間(同時滿足斐波那契回撤0.618位置附近、週區間賣方訂單塊 Week OB-)，接著重新回到820~770價格區間附近(斐波那契回撤0.382區間)進行「測試」。如果價格在此獲得支撐，可以預測在圖表上將會形成價格行為中的W型態。若價格在此區間未獲得支撐，則價格將繼續下跌。

(以上內容均為投資看法分享，不構成投資建議)