Aptos APT price review without "rose-tinted glasses"

2022年10月24日

For us, the APTUSDT trading pair is a dark horse. Everyone expects strong growth from the APT price (marketers did a good job in such a rotten crypto market), but it can easily fall.

We believe only what we see on the chart, and now there is no trading history. And we experienced good stories of marketers back in 2017)

The white paper spells out the noble goal of the Aptos blockchain - maximum facilitation for the transition and promotion of the community to Web3. And although it is predicted that Web3 will become a new hype, there is a nuance that the Web3 narrative and everything related to it has been discussed and developed for probably 15-20 years.

We also did not like the fact that the project's tokenomics was disclosed after listing APT on all top crypto exchanges.
Now 130 million out of 1 billion APT of the pre-established issue are in circulation, but the limit is not fixed, the issue may grow over time.
And although the tokenomics states that the bulk of APT tokens are locked down and will be unlocked within 4 years, and the first large unlock is projected for November 2023, there is a nuance:
From the way we managed to interpret the information, directly or indirectly about 80% of the Aptos token issuance is controlled by the team.

Also, the Aptos team asked not to start trading APTUSDT derivatives for at least 2 weeks after the launch of trading. Probably in order to prevent short position on APTUSDT, but some crypto exchanges already provide the opportunity to trade APTUSDT with x25-x75 leverage in both side.

Considering all of the above, we get the following:
1. since we expect the price of BTCUSDT to grow in the near future, the price of APTUSDT can easily shoot up to $11.75

2. to make a trading decision with our real money, we need to see the actual struggle of buyers and sellers on the chart, and not read the promises of the project developers or their marketers.
Therefore, as of now, the maximum we can afford in terms of risk management is to place limit orders to buy APTUSD in the range of $1.90-3.90 and wait a few weeks, maybe even less)
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2022年10月28日

註釋

More and more platforms make it possible to short Aptos with large leverage.

Most likely, we were right in our assumptions that we wrote in the idea that the APTUSDT price will be dumped to buy cheaply after.
As you can see, the APT price is falling even as the crypto market tries to grow.