Hi Murray, Thanks for your comments. Yes, that is a bull trap, or as Wyckoff would have put it an "upthrust". Others also call it a wash and rinse pattern. So, it's positioned technically to head lower as there is no demand in volume either.
Price does need a solid close above the last swing high - maybe two closes, with increased demand in volume.
Personally, I would never try and trade on this timeframe considering the current conditions - we're reentering a consolidated price area. Anything can happen. Tomorrow, I will be following this on 144 tick charts (on another platform).
I had a look at the VIX today as well, and that is looking bearish (bullish for equities). Again that's also consolidated so anything can happen.
Thanks again. Good luck in your trading. Patrick
Oh_If_Only
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Hi Patrick,
Just a few observations:
That is a major resistance area overhead at 5880-5900
Descending triangle pattern during late Feb-Mar: H 6080 base 5880 := range 200 := target 5680 not quite achieved yet.
So is current pattern a bull trap? (Unattractive) Flag perhaps ... just failing now.
In any event, Highs 5844 (your marked resistance) would need to be exceeded to have any upside comfort. So when in doubt, Short.
Plus no leads from offshore markets (fancy arranging major/minor conflict outside of trading hours ... how inconsiderate!), but I think the markets will be looking at what might happen next rather than what did happen.
Bullish factors: US stocks reporting, and buy backs and improving TPP relationships and Korea (Trumpy may need a few more brownie pts - Syria was not the big (support) hit he thought it may be.)
Bearish: Russia, Russia, Russia!
Down to 5700 again.
... just my 2c worth ...
Regards
Murray
Price does need a solid close above the last swing high - maybe two closes, with increased demand in volume.
Personally, I would never try and trade on this timeframe considering the current conditions - we're reentering a consolidated price area. Anything can happen. Tomorrow, I will be following this on 144 tick charts (on another platform).
I had a look at the VIX today as well, and that is looking bearish (bullish for equities). Again that's also consolidated so anything can happen.
Thanks again. Good luck in your trading. Patrick