The correction started as anticipated and in the beginning of next week we should focus on whether we are able to break lower once more. IF we see a consolidation we can sell AUDNZD again. But don't forget guy's we want the buy because this pair is heading for 1.15 and 1.18 as conservative targets. Updates will follow
We saw the first impulse for what might be the start of another bullish impulse for a move towards 1.15 and 1.18. I will be waiting for the consolidation to end before buying again. I personally like the 50-61.8 fib on 15 min time frame see tested first before seeing the continuation. Keep in mind that as long as we don't see the continuation this pair might break below 1.057 again.
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I'm looking for wave 5 of wave C to complete.
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We see some mixed signals on the lower time frames. My both buys are at break even but closely watch the potential break.
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We saw a potential reversal pattern get invalidated which is good for our buy's. Keep watching for minor consolidation. A break above 1.0772 will open the gates towards 1.15 and 1.18. That's my goal with these 2 positions so you can do the math risk/reward wise. Don't get too excited but keep the bigger picture always in mind. Updates will follow.
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I had some issues with uploading the charts on tradingview so couldn't give the short call in time. However it was comparable to the shorts for GBPNZD and EURNZD so maybe still good to show for educational purposes. I'll create a new post next time for the possible continuation because it seems that we saw a first impulse higher which means that we are now correcting in a wave 2. Keep in mind the bigger picture, we want to see 1.15-1.18. But let's wait for confirmations and let's not get too biased;-)
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Alexander_Vladimirov
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I believe it's nearly time for the buy?
TimStuyts
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Yes my pending buy has been triggered, I will update for conservative entry but it reversed overnight where I am so will update soon.
Alexander_Vladimirov
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Thanks. I bought at 1.06030 - waiting for the profit now!
TimStuyts
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My aggressive buy by means of the pending got stopped out at break even. I still see this pair higher and we saw an 1-2-3 reversal pattern on 15 min, which worked in the beginning but the reversal invalidated that trade. Bigger picture hasn't changed and we just have to wait a little longer. We are at the ideal confluence zone so keep an eye on divergence and other clues that price might be reversing. The most conservative entry is to wait for an impulse and consolidation.
ezodisy
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I think we've counted 5 up too, and should be the correction for the big move. Thanks for posting.
jbourgault
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Hi Tim, I'm monitoring this pair for a while now waiting for bullish reversal on the D1 timeframe.
I think the probability are high enought now to enter the market
-the RBA rate meeting is behind us
-beautiful hammer yesterday on the daily timeframe
-breakout on the 60 min timeframe
My SL is below what I think as being a wave 2 low (1.0435).
But for the target, I don't know. I'm aiming for the 1.618 fib extension around 1.1050. But I wouldn't mind having your advice on that one.
Thanks
jbourgault
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Move detail about my actual trade..
TimStuyts
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Hello jbourgault, your reasoning makes sense to me in terms of the RBA rate decision and the price action on the 1 hour time frame. In terms of that hammer, I disagree because this entirely depends on the data feed you are using. Nevertheless if you see this as confluence it is okay but statistical there is no data about probability and/or risk/reward when trading candle stick formations. I'm long with 2 positions and although to me it is unsure whether the low is in place yet I think it will be for at least for the short term. I will show you my update in a few. Thanks for sharing your view and although we don't use the exact same variables it is good to see that you are building a case for this trade which will definitely result in better trading results. I traded my first position based on market dynamic and reversal pattern on lower time frame. I added a second position and moved my stop loss of the first position slightly in profit. The second position is also at break even because this is an additional trade and if it got stopped out I will get another opportunity in the same price zone or even lower. If this bottom is for real I target minimum 1.15 and then 1.18. So I'll be patience because this potential risk/reward is huge and based on that Daily Flat pattern that might be over.