Price is starting to approach a likely turning point so I'll be looking for a long move next. Don't rush in and don't try to predict the turning point because price could push lower yet. Remember we use dynamic analysis which means the structure lines move with the price. The lines only show current structure and are not meant to show turning points. We wait for a break of the down trend line and the correct entry set up before deciding to open a position.
I'll update my analysis as price develops so remember to follow to receive them. You can also follow updates via twitter (link from my TV profile)
Always wait for an entry set up before risking your money.
This is not investment advice - it is purely for educational and discussion purposes. Your Ideas, comments and questions welcome
Good luck Steve
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We've had a break of the trend line but no entry set up as yet. Keep a close eye on this one, it may still correct down toward the channel bottom.
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As expected we've had a move down but it is now looking better for a long entry once it breaks upward from here
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Just to clarify - when I said breaks upward I mean breaks the trend of this current small correction
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We had a break of the secondary trend line but I didn't see a entry set up so I'm still waiting for this to turn. This pair often put in a 78.6 retracement so wait for a definite turn before getting involved
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still waiting for this to break long - keep an eye on it this week because it looks ready to turn.
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Going Long now
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OK this has pushed on down and has now touched the 78.6% Fib retracement. I warned it might do this as this pair often do. Having said that I thought it was turning long in my last update and I'm long on this already. If you're not in this yet wait for the next break and you should get in at a nice price.
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Well you can't win them all. This now pushed down to the 88.6 Fib level and I've been stopped out. I followed my rules and waited for the break and correction. Sometimes you have to make several attempts to catch a big move up. It should turn next week.
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Sorry that was the wrong chart - here is the correct one.
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We've had a nice move up - I'll wait for a correction before opening a long trade
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I'll be buying the breakout of this corrective structure
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OK you should all be long on this now so I suggest stops to zero. If you're not in wait for the break of the current flag to get involved. Remember if it doesn't break up don't get involved.
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This is my last update on this chart. It looks like the expected long move may not happen this time round and we may get another trade down before we can start to look for the expected big move up. As you can see from the snapshot below we may be in a descending diagonal with more down side to it. We could see a up or sideways move to the channel "top" before the move down. As always read the structure before making your trading decisions.
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maksheetal
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This was a great analysis, and I love the way you explain and update your charts. I was also following this pair and took a long trade yesterday. It was in profit and I moved my SL to break even fearing it may go down further. It did and I was stopped out. But now look at it! I knew it was going to go, but getting it at the right time is difficult. Thanks for all your explanations and advice!
SteveNixon
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@maksheetal, You did the right thing by moving stops to zero - you protected you capital so now you can have another go. I got involved at the break of the correction so I'm in nice profit with stops at zero. There is another opportunity presenting itself now in the form of a flag - good luck
jojofang0901
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Beautiful trade setup, thank you for sharing your view.