Selling on the AUD/USD?

FX:AUDUSD   澳幣 / 美元
Weekly gain/loss: +1.07%
Weekly closing price: 0.7983

Since weekly price struck the weekly channel support extended from the low 0.6827 six weeks ago, AUD/USD bulls have been on the offensive. Last week’s action dragged the commodity currency to highs of 0.8038, just missing the weekly resistance level at 0.8065 by a few pips.

We believe that the reason behind the pair failing to reach the noted weekly level last week was likely due to a daily Quasimodo resistance level planted at 0.8035. Printing a nice-looking daily selling wick from here on Friday, daily flow ended the week checking in with a daily support area coming in at 0.7986-0.7951.

Going into the later hours of US trading on Friday, the large psychological line 0.80 seen on the H4 timeframe was taken out and retested as resistance in the shape of a near-full-bodied H4 bearish candle. Further losses from this point could see the H4 price eventually engage with a H4 support area drawn from 0.7948-0.7926, which has been a pivotal area of support for the market since Monday last week.

Market direction:

With the near-touch of weekly resistance coming about last week, along with a tasty bearish selling wick forming on the daily timeframe from noted resistance and H4 structure reflecting a bearish stance sub 0.80, the sellers appear to have the upper hand right now. The only grumble is the daily support area mentioned above at 0.7986-0.7951.

The odds of H4 price continuing to punch lower today/early this week are high, in our technical opinion. Should traders look to short the open, and position stops above the H4 rejection candle high 0.8005 (approximately 24 pips), we see 35 pips of room down to the first H4 take-profit target: 0.7948-0.7926.

Data points to consider: No high-impacting events on the docket today.

Areas worthy of attention:

Supports: 0.7948-0.7926; 0.7986-0.7951.
Resistances: 0.80 handle; 0.8065; 0.8035.

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I'm also short. Nice thoughts here. I would add that AU has not had much of a retracement, if at all, since it started this bull run in early December. It's due. AU seems to generally go for a 5/8 retracement, (which from here would be about .77), pulling back on the daily chart, would make sense for bears to get a bit aggressive with the bulls failure to take the last daily top of .8103 in September. Certainly it could go further, or not as far, but now seems like the time to look for AU shorts.
@csm163, Thanks for your comments. Much appreciated!
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