Price has broken above long term trendline last friday, and dipped to retest it this monday asia session amid weekend fed speakers. to my experience, movements off weekend news on asian sessioins are usually corrective and cannot last long. This provided a perfect long entry for AUDUSD.
Fundamentally Australia economy is also improving and monetary policy is switching toward more hawkish than before. Many analysts has removed their expectation of further RBA cuts at least until Q1 2016, some of them even expect a rate hike before another cut.
Of course, expectations do not change overnight, it changes gradually and Aussie will rise gradually too.
Maybe a better long for Aussie is against EURO and NZD, Euro has it's own problem as Draghi is notorious about over delivering easing plans, it may happen again on 3Dec ECB meeting. Kiwi is also on the verge of another cut, probably in DEC RBNZ meeting.
Next RBA meeting is 1Dec, and they may talk about the strength of labor market and become more hawkish. Australia is transforming structurally from heavy weight in mining industry to a more serviced based economy which is good for AUD and long term Australia long term development. And also less dependent on China.
評論
sorinT
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Interesting: the same chart was posted on Investing.com. Are you the same person?
Hello, wow thanks for letting us know, apparently they just screen captured it. and it's a 4H chart not a daily :P. I'm not the author of this investing.com article.
sorinT
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Thanks, anyways the chart is nice. However, both of them are 4h charts:) And they are simply identical, look even at the red trendline.
njdfj
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Thank you. :)
I mean they just had a caption metioning "AUD/USD Daily" below their screen capture, but infact it's a 4H
sorinT
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It doesn't matter, anyways, I hope this pair goes up, I have some longs there:) Nice chart as I said and congrats for being picked up!
trader515
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i think problem is market makers knows that too
walker.england
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Congratulations! Your chart has been selected to be highlighted as the post of the day. This is a great example of how to trade a breakout on a retracement.
njdfj
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thank you :)
thescalpmaster
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I'd agree its uptrend but you can short it right now for small profit :)
investing.com/analysis/aud-poised-for-a-move-to-the-long-side-272293