Here I wanted to present everyone with a long term analysis based on TIME and SINE CYCLES methods. Looking at the monthly chart, we clearly see a strong bullish trend has been formed on this pair, which is easily seen by the formation of NSH's and NSL. Now at least we know that in the long run, we should be bullish on this pair. Next we determine if this pair is in a specific time cycle by shifting around the monthly cycle arc and we can see that this market is in a 2740 days or 391 weeks or 90 month time cycle. Every time we came close to the end of 90 month time cycle, we were exactly at the lowest points on this pair. The weekly cycle also lines up perfectly with the monthly time cycle and also the sine cycle.
So the absolute best place to look for long entries on this pair is when we hit the coming up monthly cycle arc, which is most likely to occur around April/1/2016 [2016-04-01]. We also recently got a valid break and close below one of the monthly trend lines and currently we are waiting for a retest of that trend line before going lower. I have also placed a pending short order close to the broken trend line, with -100 pips stop loss and +693 pips of potential target which is at the 2nd monthly trend line. This 2nd trend line is where I most likely expect to see a strong trend reversal on this pair. Of course I won't be blindly placing a long pending order at that 2nd trend line, that would be considered gambling. But instead that would be the level at which I will be most interested in taking long positions on this pair.
That's all I wanted to cover for this FX:AUDUSD pair, I hope I didn't overwhelm anyone with a long description :)
I have added links to other pairs that I analyzed using this method, under the RELATED IDEAS section below. Do check them out if you require more information for time and sine cycles analysis.
Please feel free to AGREE or DISAGREE with this idea by leaving a comment below. Hit that thumbs up button (top left corner of this chart) if you like the idea. Thank you everyone for all the SUPPORT that you have given me so far, I truly appreciate it. Good luck everyone :)
That's a nice projection. If anything, it's colorful!
moneymaking
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Hey mate, Thank you. Hehe :)
EverythingForex
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I've seen and know a little about sine cycles but I've never really put them into use in my trading because I don't prefer to trade based on time cycles or fib cycles. But your sine analysis does match with my own monthly analysis on this pair. So I guess that's something, huh? GL!
moneymaking
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Ya mate, I actually don't specifically trade only based on time and sine cycles, I use them to find POTENTIAL major lows in a certain pair. Once you know on which side you should likely be on for the long run, then you just go down to the lower time frames to find long entries with lower risks involved. Those will most likely turn out to be potentially high probability trade setups :)
moneymaking
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UPDATE #2: Stopped out for -100 pips. Will be looking to re-enter into the short position on a potential second retest of the trend line AFTER the September monthly candle closes.
aibek
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Hello! Very nice chart! Agree with broken trend. All is clear except second lower blue trend line where you set your target - how did you build it?
moneymaking
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Hey AibekB, thank you appreciate it. Do you mean, how I built the 2nd lower trend line?
aibek
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Yes please
moneymaking
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Sure mate, I connected the 2001-04-02 low's with 2001-09-03 low's. Have a look at the chart below. Does that clear things up a bit? Do ask more questions if you require further clarification :)
aibek
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Ah ok, thanks for clarification, just closest troughs!