AUDUSD - 4HR Bullish Bias + Possible Trade Setup

FX:AUDUSD   澳幣 / 美元
AUDUSD has seen very strong one-sided buying since July 10. This drive in price action has seen it smash through previously minor support & resistance areas until Friday, when it ran into a very strong key resistance level at 0.78285. The recent price action context indicates that there is still more room to the upside for this currency pair. Looking at the chart, I have identified two possible scenarios that would lead to a bullish trade.

Scenario 1: price continues its strong move upwards and smashes through the 0.78285 level. The trigger for this trade for my trading system would be a break and close above this level, and then a re-test of the level to confirm it as a role-reversal level (what was once resistance now becomes support) where price does not close below the level. The timeframe I would be looking at for this trigger would be the 4HR chart. ***** HOWEVER ***** It is possible that price just continues its march upwards without pulling back to this key level. An indication that this is the case would be a strong bullish candle that closes near its highs and does not have much of a lower wick (indicating an absence of sellers and strong institutional buying activity). It is important in this case for the candle to clear the level by a considerable distance to confirm a valid breakout.

Scenario 2: This is the scenario I believe to be more likely, and the one I will be watching for. After running into the 0.78285 level, my analysis is that price will reverse in the short-term and pullback to either a previous support & resistance level or to a dynamic support level (such as the 20 EMA I personally use on my charts) before making a drive through the 0.78285 level. In this scenario I would wait for price to pullback to the 20EMA, and confirm a swing low, thereby giving me a signal that the price has finished correcting and bulls are ready to start buying once more. Ideally, there will be some clearing distance between this swing low point and the 0.78285 level, allowing for some profits to be taken if the 0.78285 level holds and price decides to reverse. The key to identifying whether the level will hold or not will be in the price action context leading up to its move towards the level. IF I identify a pre-breakout price action structure I will update this idea further.

評論: AUDUSD is forming a basing pattern right now, which is often a pre-breakout formation. This means we are now waiting for a breakout instead of a pullback to prior support to trigger a trade. Waiting patiently, but this one looks very promising :)
交易進行: Entered trade on breakout of the 0.78285 level at 0.78382.

Stop Loss: 0.77985
Target 1: 0.79000
Target 2: 0.79500
Target 3: 0.80000
交易結束:達到停損點: Exited trade for -42 pips. Pair is correcting stronger than expected. Overall sentiment leans bullish still. May re-enter if more optimal entry is found
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