Sorry guys, this time i can't see clearly :). I still thought it was worth while posting this chart again. When i posted this chart the first time we had dropped from that 7500 high back to the 6500 and when price stabilized around 6600 i made this chart and knew what was going on. That purple line i drew 2 weeks ago was what i thought the price would do. We started to make a small rally but when we reached the 7200 bullish momentum fell short and we dropped back to the 6700 again.
Expect for that big squeeze the price has been following my purple line quite well. Until a few days ago my plan was still to go short between 8700 and 9600. Depending if price would make a healthy correction towards 7500, make a solid higher low and THAN we could go above the 9000. But price was being bought each time we got close to 7800/7900. Until the last 2 days i was still expecting 7500/7700 but because the price was getting bought at 7900 and pushed higher i though bulls were planning to go higher without making that correction to 7500.
If a market doesn't make a good correction and a higher low, than actually nobody can know if there are buyers willing to enter this market at certain prices. Which would indicate a solid support level.But when price moves like this, it's not sustainable for very long. There is no real support level between the 6500 and the 8400. Only level that could work is the 7800/7900.
Another options is that price is making a correction in time, would mean we could be moving like this for another few days. I told about this in my previous analysis as well, but of course i was hoping that would not happen because it frustrates everyone. Crypto markets are loved because of it's volatility, but the last month it just got completely killed. It's almost like we move 90% of the time in a less than 100 point range, than we see a flash crash or pump of 100/200 points and than it's just another half day sideways.
The thought that has been crawling in my mind the last 2 days, the fact that this might be a distribution phase. A week ago i said it was not possible because the accumulation phase at 6K's took almost 2 weeks, that 8200 would be to low. But we don't know how the big players think of course. Since yesterday price had made a 300/400 point rising wedge giving me hope for some volatility, but since we broke out it has been going sideways for hours again. This also indicates we could be in a distribution phase. The confidence i had in the 6K's about accumulation is not the same about the distribution now.
It's completely normal for a market to go sideways for a long time after a very big rally like we had a week ago, but Bitcoin is not the standard market and i thought we would start to see some direction a day or 2 ago. For now we are still in a range between 7800/8200. The best advice is, stay out of it as long as we are in this range. If i would have to gamble, i would say we go down towards 7700/7500, but this sideways action is just really making me doubt if those levels will hold. If alts were not showing strong performance like they have done AFTER the rally, it would be a clear drop for me. There are just a million confusing signals. I knew half year ago that when rumors started about institutional money would enter, that it would become more difficult to trade it, that they would destroy the charm of this market. But i did not think it would be like this. All we can do now is hope this is all just a phase of some kind and that we soon see the volatility return again.
If i can find the time i will try to post some other trades about some Alts if i can find the time. Maybe those can still offer some nice trades.
If you appreciate what i am doing for you guys, don't forget to like
The original analysis:
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And still this fractal is almost identical. It it follows this path, we have completed it and we should start to drop from. Can take a week or 2 :) but than it should drop from here.
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Where I say a week or 2, it’s joke, sarcasm :)
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Whales are doing their best to hid their plan, if they are accumulating or distributing now. Another option is, some whales are fighting against each other, but i don't think so. We can only hope we get an answer soon
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Watch out for a mean move like this. Could be both ways
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The yellow area below is like the purple area now
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This just doesn't end. Looks like the market want's to turn up. This picture also confirms it a bit. Looks very alike
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The spikes up and down look alike i mean
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The breakout was not very strong and it is almost failing. a drop below 8260 would be a small confirmation and a drop below 8200ish would be the next sign
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So finally some movement. No it has been following that same move i showed yesterday. So now we to look at what it will do with the bull flag it will probably make now. Since we are in the green area, it could follow that same path as well
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Price is still moving quite similar. This would suggest we should find support around 8400 and could turn up once again. If that happens, just look out for a failed (weak) attempt to break higher. These fractals are no guarantee whatsoever, but they do offer some great guidelines sometimes
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Anyone see my new Bitcoin Idea? I am afraid something went wrong and i have lost everything i wrote down :(
Ok, let me share some insight in what you call "the market".
At this time in 2018, you can't view Bitcoin and ALT coins as separate markets; But you have to see Bitcoin as the big money lake (Liquidity) where all the ALTS (rivers) draw from.
When more money flows into the market, it flows in phases:
1) The lake increases -> BTC goes up.
2) The rivers increase -> ALTs go up, BTC goes sideways at best
3) Rivers overflow -> ALTs take profit, Part goes back to investors, part goes back into BTC
Right now ALts are up 60% since their bottom, while BTC is up less than 30%.
2 options now: ALTS are taking profits back into BTC or the lake increases.
In a Bull market we have a positive feedback loop between ALT coins and BTC; BTC grows, Alts grow; Btc grows; etc
In a bear market we first see Alts collapse while the BTC lake gets smaller and smaller.
So my advice to you would be to stop seeing BTC as a single asset in a vacuum; but rather as the Liquidity pool for Crypto with a Tidal system of ebb and flood.
botje11
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@proficy, Thanks for sharing, i will try to respond later
@proficy,
Totally agree, I trade BTC XRP and XLM and to operate last two, always taking iñ account BTC
Aamir66
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@proficy, how does this change the analysis from a trading perspective?
proficy
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@Aamir66, it changes that going sideways is a sign of weakness, if you don't factor in the Alt-coins.
majic92
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@proficy, alts have pumped before btc which was not the case before, the benefits of the pump seem to have been reinvested in alts after the pump btc 8k, which may suggest that confidence in BTC decreases sharply
Aamir66
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@proficy, price approaching 9k. doesn't seem like a sign of weakness to me.
dralerte
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If history repeats itself (as it often does), you can bet all that action in alts right now will be transferred into funding another (unforeseen) spike in BTC's price (VERY SOON).
One quick look at the BTCUSD LONGS/SHORTS charts may help to guide one's deeper analysis. As the shorts are weakening, the longs have formed a falling wedge, which is ready to pop upwards.
If this happens, and coincides to what I'm seeing in the charts, this would mean that BTC may be the last round fireworks to confirm bullish sentiment. Certainly the whales will not make it easy for retailers to figure out what has been going on until it's too late.
However, I think we will almost surely go up (more than expected) followed by another (shorter-term) correction, which may not be as deep as bears may like.
Remember, institutions have very large orders to fill and will look to hold and distribute down the line. Their accumilation zone(s) may not always be as obvious as the chart suggests.
Then again, If they are following in the footsteps of Wyckoff, I do believe they will begin to mark up the price -- sqeezing the shorts once again, and using them as fuel for the rocket.
With the added bull sentiment taking place in the alts, this may cause a cascade of FOMO buyers, further driving the price upward to their desired distribution levels.
With lots of big names touting 6-Figure BTC, I expect their self-fulfilling prophecies to help drive the rally.
No, this does not mean we will hit 20k overnight, but I do believe it will be enough to wake up and unleash a bunch of caged bulls into the market.
Of course, however, many un-expecting (un-experienced) bulls will likely have the rug pulled from under their feet once again when the another round of market dumps occurs.
The largest %age of winners in this game will be the the un-leveraged HODLers, and those traders with the experience and patience to wait for confirmation and ride with the whales.
Sharp timing of entries and exits will be crucial.
At this time in 2018, you can't view Bitcoin and ALT coins as separate markets; But you have to see Bitcoin as the big money lake (Liquidity) where all the ALTS (rivers) draw from.
When more money flows into the market, it flows in phases:
1) The lake increases -> BTC goes up.
2) The rivers increase -> ALTs go up, BTC goes sideways at best
3) Rivers overflow -> ALTs take profit, Part goes back to investors, part goes back into BTC
Right now ALts are up 60% since their bottom, while BTC is up less than 30%.
2 options now: ALTS are taking profits back into BTC or the lake increases.
In a Bull market we have a positive feedback loop between ALT coins and BTC; BTC grows, Alts grow; Btc grows; etc
In a bear market we first see Alts collapse while the BTC lake gets smaller and smaller.
So my advice to you would be to stop seeing BTC as a single asset in a vacuum; but rather as the Liquidity pool for Crypto with a Tidal system of ebb and flood.