Hey guys. Based on my stupid theory that worked almost all time this year (not always), bitcoin will go down until the ratio of 24 hr volume over total crypto market cap reaches 10 percent (or 0.1). These values are available on top of the coinmarketcap.com website. Currently, the 24 hr volume is $14 billion and the total crypto market cap is $337 billion. The ratio of them is 4.2% (0.042). If the volume does not change as the price goes down, then BTC has to go down until the total market cap reaches $140 billion. However, as the price goes down, the volume will go up because the buyers will get excited to buy cheap coins. Therefore, a good assumption is, from here, as the price goes down, the volume will go up proportionally until the ratio becomes equal to 0.1. Therefore, the target bottom market cap will be average of $140 billion and the current market cap which is $337. This gives us target bottom market cap equal to $240 billion. This market cap is interestingly equivalent of bitcoin price of $5900 if we assume BTC share of the market will not change a lot until then. As you can see, using a method independent of charts, we got the same number for bitcoin price as the previous low of around $6000 suggested by charts :D I always keep some cash to buy bitcoin when the ratio reaches 0.1 :) I will keep you updated on my stupid idea. Please follow me, like the post, or comment on my stupid idea. Good luck trading.
BTC will likely go below 6k. I don't think it will ever be 20k again. This market is full of hype, scams, manipulation, and theft.
Esmaeel
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@rev214us, That is my opinion too, for now. However, I was proved wrong about bitcoin many times in the past. All I care is making money. I buy and then sell at a higher price :) The market changes so fast so I do not count a lot on the current market sentiment for long-term predictions.
kardia
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@Esmaeel, The whole thing is falling apart. I get it that people don't want to hear that, but there comes a point when you have to put wishful thinking aside and be realistic about what is happening. There is no sign of recovery for this market. Is this the end for crypto? I don't believe so. Crypto will have a future, but it is highly likely it will be regulated.
Esmaeel
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@rev214us, This market is crazy. It killed me. But I am sure about one thing! Bitcoin will retest $10000 sometime in future. I buy at a price probably between $4000 to $7000 depending on when the volume spike will happen and then set my target price at around 10k. It has been my plan for more than 1 month. I waited a lot for this crash.
kardia
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@Esmaeel, I hope you are able to recover what you have lost.
Esmaeel
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@rev214us, I hope so too...
Esmaeel
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@rev214us, buy at a low price, when the ratio is about 0.1 and then sell at a much higher price to get some of your losses back :D I hope it works out. It happens only once a month :))) so we have to be patient :D
ItsCryptoAnt
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I remember when you shared this on @MagicPoopCannon TA. I think it would be cool to see this workout.