Now What BITCOIN? Ultimate Freedom or 4.888,7 USD?? Let's See...
Hello Dear Friends <3
First of all - sorry for not making my many updates. Didn't sleep for almost 30 hours again, and now I only got 3 hours of sleep. I've been really busy lately with my business, and also here on TradingView, where I try to keep you updated with the market.
It makes me happy, that most of you guys do appreciate all the work I put into this trying to educate you guys about TA and Trading. Thanks for the love and support. And obviously I can expect - no matter what - when one of my predictions are wrong, we will immediately see the first 20 people go into my charts taunting me like small bullies from the middle school :)
Even a death threat did I get on Private Message yesterday. LOL! WTF!
Before I start I want to say one very important thing to all the new traders out there. When I make charts here on TV, I'm trying to give you the most plausible directions. At the same time, I'm trying to educate you about TA and charting in general. You are NOT SUPPOSED to trade every single arrow I make, and when I say something is more likely than another scenario, you shall not necessarily trade that one.
It's very important for me to stress, that you have to distinguish between ideas and scenarios AND ACTUAL TRADES.
Ok, lets now take a look at, what this is all about. BITCOIN! Crazy days, huh? 14 days of boring sideways movement, and then we finally popped out of the descending wedge, as we have never seen before. BTC-record when it comes to volume and a spike which took us up more than 1,000 USD within 30 minutes and send the RSI in almost 90(!). Not only that, we also broke out from the downtrend channel.
We are right not at 8,190 USD.
So now what?
First of all, it's too early celebrate. As you can see, we are facing an enormous zone of confluence of resistance. Look at the 3 blue resistance lines. Also we have the EMA50 above us and 61,8 % retrace. On the 4h and smaller time frames the RSI shows totally overbought, which means, that we very soon need a retracement.
The 1D Chart gives us more room to go higher. We just had a bullish MACD Cross, BUT we will very soon face RSI Level 60, which is a crucial Resistance level for BTC. If BTC manage to break that level, the sun will finally start to shine and Freedom will be in the air.
I will now give you 3 scenarios:
BULLISH: We here assume, that we are done with our 1-5 EW down Wave C (in blue), and are right now in the process of restarting a new minor EW-Cycle (in purple). As you can see, we have to go through a lot of resistance, but it's not unlikely due to the new believe in the market.
NEUTRAL/Semi-bullish: We here assume, that the resistance above us, will be too hard a nut for us to crack, so we will here slowly move upwards as long the new up trendline for some while.
BEARISH: We here assume, that our initial blue Elliott Waves has to be adjusted. So our now 2nd wave will be our 1st wave. This could also be a possible scenario. If this is the case we are still in the process of the 5th subwave Wave C, which can send us down to 6k and the double bottom. There is also still a risk, that we have whales to out here to make a bull trap, now everyone slowly are becoming bullish, and they would easily could send us down in 7k again within 30 minutes and liquidate a lot of longs.
D4 Loves You <3
Once again - thanks for the love and support guys - let's ignore the haters and trolls. We are here to learn and become better traders. Let's not waste our time on negative people. Please leave a LIKE, my friends :)
First of all - sorry for not making my many updates. Didn't sleep for almost 30 hours again, and now I only got 3 hours of sleep. I've been really busy lately with my business, and also here on TradingView, where I try to keep you updated with the market.
It makes me happy, that most of you guys do appreciate all the work I put into this trying to educate you guys about TA and Trading. Thanks for the love and support. And obviously I can expect - no matter what - when one of my predictions are wrong, we will immediately see the first 20 people go into my charts taunting me like small bullies from the middle school :)
Even a death threat did I get on Private Message yesterday. LOL! WTF!
Before I start I want to say one very important thing to all the new traders out there. When I make charts here on TV, I'm trying to give you the most plausible directions. At the same time, I'm trying to educate you about TA and charting in general. You are NOT SUPPOSED to trade every single arrow I make, and when I say something is more likely than another scenario, you shall not necessarily trade that one.
It's very important for me to stress, that you have to distinguish between ideas and scenarios AND ACTUAL TRADES.
Ok, lets now take a look at, what this is all about. BITCOIN! Crazy days, huh? 14 days of boring sideways movement, and then we finally popped out of the descending wedge, as we have never seen before. BTC-record when it comes to volume and a spike which took us up more than 1,000 USD within 30 minutes and send the RSI in almost 90(!). Not only that, we also broke out from the downtrend channel.
We are right not at 8,190 USD.
So now what?
First of all, it's too early celebrate. As you can see, we are facing an enormous zone of confluence of resistance. Look at the 3 blue resistance lines. Also we have the EMA50 above us and 61,8 % retrace. On the 4h and smaller time frames the RSI shows totally overbought, which means, that we very soon need a retracement.
The 1D Chart gives us more room to go higher. We just had a bullish MACD Cross, BUT we will very soon face RSI Level 60, which is a crucial Resistance level for BTC. If BTC manage to break that level, the sun will finally start to shine and Freedom will be in the air.
I will now give you 3 scenarios:
BULLISH: We here assume, that we are done with our 1-5 EW down Wave C (in blue), and are right now in the process of restarting a new minor EW-Cycle (in purple). As you can see, we have to go through a lot of resistance, but it's not unlikely due to the new believe in the market.
NEUTRAL/Semi-bullish: We here assume, that the resistance above us, will be too hard a nut for us to crack, so we will here slowly move upwards as long the new up trendline for some while.
BEARISH: We here assume, that our initial blue Elliott Waves has to be adjusted. So our now 2nd wave will be our 1st wave. This could also be a possible scenario. If this is the case we are still in the process of the 5th subwave Wave C, which can send us down to 6k and the double bottom. There is also still a risk, that we have whales to out here to make a bull trap, now everyone slowly are becoming bullish, and they would easily could send us down in 7k again within 30 minutes and liquidate a lot of longs.
D4 Loves You <3
Once again - thanks for the love and support guys - let's ignore the haters and trolls. We are here to learn and become better traders. Let's not waste our time on negative people. Please leave a LIKE, my friends :)
評論:
So we fell down, as I predicted. It seems like, we are done with our minor EW Cycle, and will go into an ABC-correction. I think we will go to around 7,6k!
Something between 38,2-50 % retracement of the cycle.
D4 loves you <3
Please give a LIKE - it is much appreciated. Thanks, guys :)
Something between 38,2-50 % retracement of the cycle.
D4 loves you <3
Please give a LIKE - it is much appreciated. Thanks, guys :)
評論:
LOL - 200 dollars price drop after my prediction! If the whales are toying with us again and take us under 7k within 30 min....
I don't even know what to say! Let's see.
I don't even know what to say! Let's see.
評論:
Just to give you an idea, how the 2 different scenarios can play out!
D4 <3
D4 <3
評論:
So far so good! Everything is still in play - We have made our A and B wave, which I told you about.
Everything is pointing in the direction, that we now will go 7,6xx-7,400. It would match with our Elliott Wave Theory (betwwen 38,2- 50 % retrace), and also by looking at all the time frames, where we can see from the MACD, that the Bulls have lost momentum and are exhausted
The RSI confirms that too. We might even go down to 7,2xx, where we will have a 61,8 % retrace - If we look at the Volume Profile, we can see, that there is not really much support after 7,4xx.
Both options are still in play not matter. I think it's highly unlikely, that we can continue further up now.
D4 Loves You <3 Please give a LIKE - And Happy Song Kran (New Year) to our Thai Viewers!:)
Everything is pointing in the direction, that we now will go 7,6xx-7,400. It would match with our Elliott Wave Theory (betwwen 38,2- 50 % retrace), and also by looking at all the time frames, where we can see from the MACD, that the Bulls have lost momentum and are exhausted
The RSI confirms that too. We might even go down to 7,2xx, where we will have a 61,8 % retrace - If we look at the Volume Profile, we can see, that there is not really much support after 7,4xx.
Both options are still in play not matter. I think it's highly unlikely, that we can continue further up now.
D4 Loves You <3 Please give a LIKE - And Happy Song Kran (New Year) to our Thai Viewers!:)
評論:
So after talking with a friend of mine - I don't want to mention her name, cause I don't want to give her any kind of credit - (lol)
She opened my eyes for another scenario, I in the beginning I didn't really believed in. She believes my 5th wave is her green wave 3 and we are right now on wave 4, which will take us a bit further down, and then up to wave 5 in green.
The reason I didn't believed in this in the beginning, was because of 2 things.
- Overbought RSI on time frames, and RSI Resistance on level 60 on daily chart.
- Also if you look at the daily chart, you can see that the last candles shows clear signs of a soon reversal.
But I might have underestimated the power of the bulls.
When that is said - My Scenario I gave you before Is still completely alive. We could very well still be on the C-Wave and on the way down to 7,6k.
Once again. Thank you for following me - really appreciate it! Please leave a LIKE <3
She opened my eyes for another scenario, I in the beginning I didn't really believed in. She believes my 5th wave is her green wave 3 and we are right now on wave 4, which will take us a bit further down, and then up to wave 5 in green.
The reason I didn't believed in this in the beginning, was because of 2 things.
- Overbought RSI on time frames, and RSI Resistance on level 60 on daily chart.
- Also if you look at the daily chart, you can see that the last candles shows clear signs of a soon reversal.
But I might have underestimated the power of the bulls.
When that is said - My Scenario I gave you before Is still completely alive. We could very well still be on the C-Wave and on the way down to 7,6k.
Once again. Thank you for following me - really appreciate it! Please leave a LIKE <3
評論:
For all of you guys, who says its impossible to go under 5,000 USD now - then take a look here. I'm not saying we will do it - I'm SUPER BULLISH on Bitcoin in the long run, but I'm still bearish atm.
Scary BITCOIN-Comparison - 2014 and 2018! You Won't Believe it!!
Scary BITCOIN-Comparison - 2014 and 2018! You Won't Believe it!!
And we have extreme resistance above us.
Let's see! :)