As talked about a lot, 2018 correction seems to be buildning up a more fast-pasted 2012 correction.
By looking at data of current trend and history it seems that we are heading for 4000 - and if history repeats itself we should be leaving this short-term downmarket in july-august
I've never really used elliot wave, but I've been reading more and more about it - I would love to hear in the comments if you think it's used correctly in this example. As suggested we are on C heading down to 4000.
Anyways, thanks for reading and have a pleasant week:)
Also check out OfficialTjans 2014=2018 fractals, very interesting stuff
評論
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So a more aggressive correction this time around - no 3 year bearmarket
Hi Hugo, check out this guy's chart and analysis : He originally published his chart on 7 Feb 2018 and just recently updated it and has similar targets as your analysis.
hugog1234
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@tuamen, Thanks for sharing tuamen!
WaveRider1423
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Mate great job and thank you for sharing. I think you are spot on as to the bigger picture. Using the weekly chart and placing it on a log scale really helps to remove the noise and get a better view on a relative basis and a longer term perspective. There certainly appears to be more downside correction in store.
I have copied your chart and I have adjusted your count slightly to reflect the more likely completion of green wave 3 and 4. This was the only way I could get a proper 5 wave sub-division (black circles) for green wave 3. And I have added the larger wave sequence to give it more perspective and broader context. Every thing else remains basically the same including your conclusions as the most likely level for this correction is in the area of wave 4 of one lessor degree between $5000 and $3000 ( the area highlighted in yellow). Additionally, as it appears this wave (4) correction is unfolding as an ABC Zig-Zag it could easily morph into an ABC Flat or even a Triangle which are more common patterns for a wave 4 position and would be more in line with the Eillott guideline of alternation with wave (2) correction. We'll have to keep a close eye as she unfolds.
hugog1234
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@tuamen, I'm super thankful for your comment, especially the proper 5 wave sub-division for green wave #3. Also your perspective on a larger wave sequence is great.
Let's talk about our wave 4 that we're in right now on our larger wave sequence:
* If it evolves into a triangle, would you say we have already hit bottom?
Anyways big props to you for beautiful charting, easy to comprehend without being too plotty. As always - time will tell, I'm watching from the sideline until things become clearer.
hugog1234
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@HugoGlatzl, here is a picture for users that might not know the "triangle" rule
@HugoGlatzl, I’ve dropped down to the Daily chart to get a more detailed look at the possible alternative counts and where wave (4) may complete. There appear to be many alternatives, to many to review them all however, in my opinion, the two most likely is the ABC Zig-Zag or the ABC Flat then followed by a Triangle. If the corrective channel remains intact and we are able to break below $5920 I would favor the Zig-Zag. However, alternatively, if $5920 holds as support and the corrective channel, as currently drawn ,is breached then I would favor a Flat correction and possibly followed by a Triangle before the completion of wave (4) and the bullish trend resumes. So even under the Flat correction scenario wave C should still extend beyond wave A just not as deep as in the Zig-zag and would take more time to complete. Under either scenario I would expect wave C to unfold in a 5 wave sub-structure. Wave 4’s in general are characterized by a shallower move than wave 2’s however take an extended period time to unfold. So a wave 2 is characterized its depth of correction but happens more sharply and quickly. I think it is too early in the game to speculate how a possible Triangle may unfold as they generally follow an ABC in a combination correction and more often than not in the wave 4 position. Triangles, in general, contain five overlapping waves that sub-divide 3-3-3-3-3 and can take a very long time to unfold.
I hope that helps, don’t mean to be evasive, we just need price to unfold a bit more before we can lend confidence as to which count may unfold.
Nice talking with you mate, and thanks again for your chart, you called it!
WaveRider1423
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@tuamen, This is the daily chart and considers the alternate bullish scenario as we look for any supporting evidence that the low is in place. We can see under this scenario that technically price has satisfied the minimal requirements under Elliott wave guidelines to be considered complete and has printed a 3-3-5 ABC. If so, then we should be looking for an impulsive move to resume the bullish trend. If we consider green wave 1 as the first leg of a new bullish movement then green wave 2 should unfold as a three wave ABC and it has not. Instead it has unfolded as a 5 wave structure. This leads me to believe that the low is not in place and probability favors that we have more corrective price action in store.
WaveRider1423
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Hi Hugo, Check out this guy's chart, he posted it on 27 May 2017 with unbelievable accuracy. He followers seem to be well versed in EW theory and make meaning contributions in chart development. Also note his target for the next impulsive move. Anyway check it out here:
hugog1234
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@tuamen, Also note that according to his charts resistance at 3500 was tough to break, and that trendline is at this time at around 7400 - it did hold, so far. From a different perspective you could say that we´re still on wave 3 and in the second phase as in 2013 bubble. I really don't think that's the case though, let's see how the price evolves in the next upcoming weeks. Thanks for sharing the chart, so far spot on.
hugog1234
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@tuamen, Hey, did we drop out of this channel nov 2018? And retested it as resitance back in july 2019?