I base this off my close analysis of the previous two years of daily candles. A close below the 50d during a correction has always led to a further drop in price, normally down to the 130d . It has also been common to see the price wick past the price set by the 130d .
Based on this, I believe we will see BTC -3.53% drop to $9.5k - $9k if the current daily candle closes below the 50d . This area also lines up with the 0.236 .