Pay special attention not only to the price structures, but the volumes. This is a wyckoff text book accumulation
TR - Trading ranges are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand. Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests. AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC. SOS—sign of strength a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action.
評論
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Republished the chart 'cause those indicators where not meant to be there
Are you sticking to your "extremely bearish" 2018 picture? Think we could be in for at least some rests (some would say a Wave C) over 8k again? Any chance of a bull/ATH (I know you didn't feel so before)?
bagofXMR
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@renkcub, 8k and nearby is possible. new ath anytime soon (less than 6 months) i consider it 100% impossible. I still think we are facing a 9-18 months (since december) bear/consolidation market.
In a bigger picture I still stand for this analisys, that rn has "confirmed" either blue or red path (80/20% blue/red).
Thanks for leacing your comment :)
Johnnysharp
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@bagofXMR, Thanks. I agree with that possibility. However, we are still relatively close to the 2013 fractal, which suggests we could test as low as 5.5k-6k, but that we would also retrace to the ~10K+ range in the traditionally powerful early summer months (and after tax day). It also appears when we would likely meet 8k (1-2 weeks), if we do, it represents a trendline breakout - which could help propel us at least that high again, even before settling down back at 3k again. Do you see any chance of this scenario (of course, fractals are only good until they aren't...)
@bagofXMR, Thanks, and agreed that "green" scenario died with the "ramen line" breakdown. Thoughts on blue vs red as of today? Will read your write-up and comment on fundamentals.
Johnnysharp
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@renkcub, Closer look at your chart - I still think there is a case for a larger "dead" cat" even in the blue scenario taking us to 3k by year's end.