I am not normally into conspiracy theories, but I am interested in any impact (if any) on the spot market from the CBOE and CME futures markets.
I have marked the start and end of the 2 futures markets. There was a clear downtrend for the first CBOE duration and a clear up tick after if ended. Let's see what happens when the CME futures expire.
Perhaps the futures market (being currently so small) doesn't have a direct effect but the impact may be set more in the minds and expectations of the market as a whole. Either way, the effect may be the same.
Hi All, as a very beginer trying to understand how it plays... full agree as mentioned by Artesp, but again, all expecting drop to 8000K (more or less), my modest opinion is that if it would happen now, there will be great panic and it would finish at 4000 K.... in my opinion it means game over. And i think that wahles also realize that so they will wait (too much fear now) until the rest will get calm... and than will strike. Or maybe it is REAL end, whales are fulfill and let it go naturaly... then it means that we will come back to 1000K - 3000K range waiting for next BTC reactivation:) Sorry for my language... very courios yours opinions
darobsta
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@lluka, hi, I have no opinion on this yet. Just something I am watching and tracking - so I am less likely to get caught out next time
Artesp
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short and long bets will almost have a sinusoidal layout through time. is the only way to keep the ball rolling without killing the golden goose.
Artesp
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Yes, a long contract is due soon to keep the coin alive. This time around it was obviously a short.
DONCALLI
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The futures market does have an effect on the spot price of BTC.
Consider this scenario:
A whale with deep pockets buys huge amounts of BTC up to 20k, starting from say 10k. At the same time the whale SELLS to open a number of BTC contracts whose nominal value at purchase is equivalent to the the BTC originally bought.
All the whale has to do is sell the BTC, overwhelming the market, triggering preset stop-loss point along the way, which in itself forces the spot price of BTC to go even lower, FUD kicks it and down the spot price goes
Then whale now BUYS TO CLOSE the BTC contract at a huge profit AND most importantly buys again BTC at a lower price.
JaimyPorter
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I don't get all the panic, CME futures can short but they can also go the other way, so who knows what they will do?
darobsta
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@JaimyPorter, let's say it's true that the futures are affecting the market... the logical move in that scenario would be to long the next month. There's more upside at this point with money sitting on the sidelines. The mysterious whales wouldn't want to kill this market, they want to feed on it!
RaduV
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Normally, futures and options have an impact on prices but, as you said, on crypto the futures volume are still low to make an impact
Artesp
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I agree with that. the FUD will end tomorrow at 4pm London time. And the FOMO will kick in, officially starting the Pamplona street's bull run. The Bitcoin wealth is not spreaded uniformly. A small percent of the coin owners have a very large percent of the total supply. More than likely these whales are also into futures, because at this point they are big-boy trading with professional advisors and institutions. So, even if they don't mean to. If they bet on a short, naturally they will want to see it happen. They dump, causing automatic stop loss orders to execute, public FUD and the final stroke is by the media who likes sensationalism and to report the bad events. If Wall street shorted the housing market in 2008, believe me that the Bitcoin whales can short the coin market. Just go with the flow and try to benefit from this market movement. At the end movement both ways is profitable if you are informed.