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Given the 20k ATH, the 14k high, and the recent downward channel, BTC has many key resistances layered between 9.4k - 10k. The longer resistances take to develop, the harder they are to break. As a result, before these resistances are broken, our bias remains on the short side.
There are currently many differences regarding how to make sense of the recent 7-8% rise. Some believe this breaks us out of the triangle into the next motive wave upwards (either wave 5 or wave 1 of next bigger moon move). Others (like us) believe it's part of a larger corrective wave to the downside (Wave B). However, regardless of which side one is on, the one thing that we should agree on is there's at least a 300-500 correction ahead very soon. Even for the most bullish scenario (we are in wave 1 of the next bigger structure to create ATH), wave1 needs to correct, and with that many resistances, and wave 1 being the wave with “disbelief”, we are looking at a 0.618 retracement.
Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
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Both bullish and bearish Elliot wave counts (zoomed out):
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The question now becomes: when will the CME gap be filled this time around?
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TA is now as bullish as FA. However, we simply can't shoot up in a straight line. Institutional traders think 11k is overpriced.
@msabbagh, think so too. I think it's going to crawl up very slowly, step by step and 'nobody' will see it coming that all of the sudden the bull run has already started. This is not the time to short, but that's my humble opinion.
Facebook_120
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Rule no one in trading is to avoid loosing trades. Q - Why are you using 4H chart to base your trading on. The timeframe is way too short -
Why are you using BTC against the Dollar. The dollar is falling fast everywhere, so why should I short the Bitcoin.
I use the BTC/EUR on a daily chart because the EUR is way more stable than the USD and only 2 indicators - 30 SMA (a month of data) for a directional baseline and standard ATR for volume.
Have a look at it. You will see that the price is over the SMA and the ATR is very low. I have no reason to go short and the price is not going anywhere.
To explain the resent price jump on BTC/UDS, have a look at EUR/UDS and you will se that the dollar is falling. Bitcoin is not going anywhere.
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@haraldur Nice explanation. I was wondering why the BTCUSD and BTCEUR chart looked so verry differently.