Bitcoin Head and Shoulders appears to be forming. We must only wait for confirmation and possibly a small bounce before this downward movement of -15% begins with a target of $9100. We may hover with some FOMO putting us down as low as $8300. After the target in the 8-9k range, we should see the hard bounce move us back up with a target of 54K by Feb 20th or Mar 1st 2018.
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This shoulder is pretty much confirmed.. Down we go.. hold on!
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Progressing well, 99% of coins are in the red.. good buy opportunities coming up before Wednesday morning when the reviews are released on the top coins.
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I'm not sure if we are done with this retest of the 9000 range. May take another day or so.
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1h charts show that we've made multiple attempts to break out of the current downtrend. It also shows that we have a triangle that may be ready to be broken as early as tomorrow. This could come together if the crypto ratings announcement comes out in a positive light for bitcoin.
However, if the crypto ratings come out in a negative light, it could drive Bitcoin and many other coins down.
Glancing over ETH movement over the past week/month, tells me that ETH is on fairly strong footing, but is also affected slightly by negative BTC movement. This is telling me that ETH is gaining some traction, possibly due to the number of alts, ICO's and tokens based upon ETH.
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1d shows we are at the top corner of the large bullish flag (yellow rectangle). This flag may be extended if we continue the downtrend, but it is by no means the end. However, if we break out of this flag, then we will show some good positive movement upward. We will need at least 25% positive movement to break above 15k in order to confirm that we have broken the flag and we are beginning the rally to 54k.
Give it a few more days and let's see where this goes. Could be interesting.
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I think Ron called it well. Looks like we're going up, see if we go into harmonic mode and bounce a little to create an inverse H&S which will further help these gains.
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15m shows we might be on track for 12K in the next couple hours. Depends on the resistance in other timelines.
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Now for the inverse head and shoulders if we break above the neckline, which we are very quickly approaching. Target +36% to $16,000 in 24 hours or so.
All that contesting the 10K support, even with the weak hands briefly breaking through to 9900 in a panic -- still just touches of the long channel line from ATH. Digging all the way to 9100 would have to bust the channel again, and we already did that forcefully with the last selloff to the 9K zone. Now it's time (harmonically) to breach the channel top
Tin.Foil
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@ronfkingswanson, The real question though, can we break above 15k? I say 15k because it's the top of the 1d ichimoku resistance cloud, which has historically (the last year), been our support area. As with prior drops through the top of the red ichi cloud, we normally bounce back through them to re-gain support.
Thanks for the comments @ronfkingswanson, I always like watching your charts, even if sometimes they go completely the opposite direction of my own. Keep me in check. :-)
Tin.Foil
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@ronfkingswanson, Also, looking at your chart, if we do harmonically breach the top, we'll form another inverse H&S leading us to a target of 14k. Still slightly below the ichimoku 1d resistance cloud, however we'll be well within it and near the top at that point. This could result in some sideways action for a week or two while we fight to break through the top of that cloud.
All of this fighting and resistance for the past few weeks, feels like there will be a lot of pent up energy if we break the proper levels and this could easily lead us to some new ATH's.
Boss_Coyote
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@tin.Foil, this will happen 13800 will be hit mid February and take off will commence from there
monguilhot
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fuck ing weake hands... only tether saves now! :)
Tin.Foil
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@monguilhot, or HODL through it and wait for the bounce to 54k.. see the other chart above. I'm looking at a 36 day cycle, +2 days for this crash and bounce, which puts us at 54K on March 1st, 2018.
monguilhot
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@tin.Foil, Since December BTC 19K... I had selled 70% of all my coins. Only 30% with 10 tokens (just because im lazy LOL). Since the beggining of Jannuary I have 30%+ more BTC with the same USDT value. So, In a bearcrash markets like that, as a daytrader, Im not HOLDING ;) Thanks a lot for sharing your work and thoughts, really appreciate!
Tin.Foil
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@monguilhot, I don't HODL as a daytrader either. I always move 30-60% of my funds to positive gain coins whenever possible and try to get some gains there. I'm down about 60% or so overall from the peak, but as soon as this market turns, I'm hoping to see that peak double or triple quickly.