I am very new to trading anything, and caught the crypto bug. Looks to me like we are still in a bear trend, but we broke long term resistance briefly the other day, followed by a correction. I thought the correction would go lower since we crossed support, but it bounced back and then broke short term bear trend. At this point I see volatility going up to 11,500 or so at which point we hit the long term resistance line. Since long term trend lines for both bull and bear are getting close to crossing I feel like this will be a major point telling us where BTC will go in the next few months. If we head over the top then we will go into full bull mode, but if it gets rejected we may retrace down to 7 or 8k. Not very sure though.
Let me know what you think. Am I way off, or do I kinda know what I'm talking about? As I said I'm new to trading and crypto, so any feedback at all would be very helpful. I love to learn, so if you gotta rip my analysis apart go ahead. Teach me something!
We will be bearish until BTC breaks threw the Dec 17 bear trend. Anyone that says btc gone bull is wrong, until we are confirmed broken threw we are still in the down trend. The down trend has now change since the 10.4K run up, you need to move your trend line up, from 11.7k - 10.4k.
pyratellama
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@astars111, Thanks for the reply. I agree with you that it will be bearish until we break the long term downtrend.
astars111
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@pyratellama, for sure! but you see what I'm talking about moving up the trend line from 11.7k to 11.4k. we already getting a retrace from 10.2k that lines up perfectly. the trends change consistently and need to look out for them.
pyratellama
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@astars111, I don't exactly understand. Are you talking about the long term down trend line? Should it be hitting the peak back at 11740?
astars111
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@pyratellama, no your long term down trend is correct. but your recent down trend that starts at 11.7k, lines up to 10.9k. that 10.9k needs to be move up to 10.4k creating a wider down trend. now your bottom line needs to move as well for correlate. first point is 2/20/18 at 11.2k.
astars111
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@astars111, but these trends consistently change. As we are now starting to see a proper break out, out of it.
pyratellama
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@astars111, yeah, now I see what you're saying. I can't figure out how to edit those lines now though. Looks like I can't. Every time I try to trade these small bounces/drops I get burned. LOL. Can't figure those out yet.
astars111
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@pyratellama, you cant edit what is posted. lol, and yeah it takes alot of learning and figuring out your risks. Don't trade on small bounces, you will get burned haha especially in a bear market. Take your time done rush into trades figure out a plan and stick with it and always focus on minimizing losses. go from there.
pyratellama
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@astars111, Thanks for all your input. Until the last few days I was just trading on major trends, and did really well. Maybe I should stick to that. Just so tempting to try to gain on these bounces. LOL.
astars111
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@pyratellama, Don't. From personal experience works awesome in the bull market. but right now you never know how low she'll go.