In my previous report, I mentioned the possibility of the scenario that is unfolding at the moment and warned against initiating any new longs at the 7400 area. I also mentioned that a market bottom is not an event, but a process. This market can still very well test the 6K low and possibly even go as low as 4559 which is the broader reversal zone boundary relative to the 6K low. The emotional and reactionary nature of this market emphasizes that possibility even more.
I want to see a reversal candle like a establish itself around the 6204 area which is a minor reversal zone boundary relative to the 6425 low. If this happens, it will offer an attractive swing trade opportunity because of the well defined risk, while at the same time offering an area to add to or establish a position trade as well because of its bigger picture location. The reason why I keep bringing up that the bottom is a process is because there is no guarantee that a long signal off of this low will be the bottom. If a signal appears, I will highlight the details on S.C. only.
If price falls below 6K, I will be looking for a broader reversal some where between 6K and 4559. A break below 6K will negate the current wave count that I have posted at S.C., and will signal that this market is in a much broader consolidation rather than a Wave 2 bottom.
In summary, buying into these lows, as I have mentioned before, from a risk standpoint is more attractive than buying at a short term peak. The problem is momentum is still and you have to be okay with taking pain (do not do this with margin). The more conservative choice is to wait for the nearest to be taken out along with the 7490 level (.382 of recent swing). Then look for the higher low, because with that structure in place, the market will be signalling that the bears are losing control which is not the case at the moment. The current lows offers great prices, but price action says lower prices are still very possible. Which avenue you choose is dependent on your own ability to handle risk, what you can afford to lose and what your goal is (long term hold or short term trade). I am still and will consider both swing trades and adding to my position IF the market can show the setup that I want to see.
Questions and comments welcome.
People who bought in the last run at peak $1200 in 2013 and held for this run made a nice profit. If you just hold, in 6 month to 2 years you can make a LOT more, IMO.