botje11

The big accumulation phase of Bitcoin at 6500

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
I wanted to show you this analysis again for the ones who have missed it and for the ones who have forgotten it. It can be very valuable information if you understand what was going on there. Just really look at what was going on, try to remember the market sentiment as well. I am still not going to give the answer to this puzzle, because i have already given away allot of my secrets. Discuss it with each other and maybe you will figure it out. If you really want to put in the hours, read some of my older analysis of these 2 past weeks as well. If you figure this one out i will promise you will have a real edge during confusing moments like this. I have copied my original analysis here below......

Bulls and bears getting frustrated by this sideways action, i know i am. If we would just know upfront when price falls a sleep like this, than we could get some extra sleep as well :)

A few days ago i made a perfect call by going long at 6460 (average price) when we broke that flag/triangle/pennant/whatever on the downside. I was watching the price action very closely and my gut told me there were some big buyers there and in a split second i decided to go long. Was a risky trade, no risk no reward :). My target was 7700 and everything was looking just perfect. I closed half my position at 7330 (because of that fractal analysis of mine), because i thought just in case, lets lock in some profit and reduce risk. I wanted to let the rest ride to at least 7700 but maybe even higher but in secret i was going for 8K levels (shhhh don't tell anyone). I saw that small H&S and the bigger one getting formed at the same time, But i thought if this market is really strong, the H&S fails and it would accelerate up, just like it did around the 6800 during that rally, which i posted realtime.

Anyway, we got our confirmation very soon, the market was not ready for this move up. Because it just kept dropping. The first signal was that fake breakout of the bull flag at 7400 to 7500. Thing now is, we are still above the 6400 low, even though the market has shown so much weakness. So my guess is, levels between 6400/7700 is one big accumulation phase. This theory fails if we drop below the green area (6400) give or take 100 points (it's never exact science).

That big purple (half) circle is just to show the high probability that we will start to see higher lows. Just like on the left side that the lows were getting less low (drops getting smaller). I see many people drawing allot of wedges , but i just don't like them at all. You cannot just draw lines if they connect, sometimes it's just a coincidence and not part of the same chapter of the story. Of course they do show some characteristics of a wedge , absolutely.

While i was writing this, i posted that i went long at 6600 and will add up till 6500. Now i am not betting my whole life on this guys, it's just another, just another trade! I am keeping the position small because it's still a counter trend wave! I have my stop just below the 6400, maybe 6350. I have been looking at the volume picture, but i still can't get my finger on it. Maybe i will get the answer in my dream later today :)

So clearly i think it's an accumulation phase. Of course i have my reasons why i think it's that, but i won't tell. I can't give away every secret i have :) But i did give you guys a big hint, so it's up to you to solve the puzzle :).

But i would wait first to see what happens, because if we start to drop and break the 6K than my theory is completely wrong of course.So it would (probably) just be a waste of your time. To be clear, i am still a big bear about this market, have been for many months now, have been calling the 7,5k/6K/4K levels quite a while now. But it's just a correctional wave up that i am expecting. Good luck trading :)


Don't forget to like if you appreciate my efforts :)

Original idea
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https://t.me/botje11
Excellent detail with good information. Thanks so much.
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How do you know this was accumulation and not simply the counter-forces of bears and bulls equalizing to a 6.5k price?

Maybe the bulls weren't accumulating but keeping the price up so the coins they bought at lower prices still were in profit?

Perhaps the bears covered their shorts and wanted price to rise a bit before creating new shorts.
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Accumulation volume @04.02 was too big to distribute @ 03.04 low bull volume due to the market sentiment. Because of that market needed to reaccumulate and redistribute. I was expecting lower levels (6000-6400) for accumulation tho...
+1 回覆
Please wait BTC will rock fall in 7 hours of time.
+7 回覆
raaajesh raaajesh
Please see my last chart.
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TA make us panic so we sell and then you can buy cheap? you missed the train?
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lvg3g ArifIrawan09
TA can also make us FOMO and we buy and then they dump. We got hit from the train.
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@botje11 According to your older post, you think its accumulation. I remember that the sentiment was very bearish during that time. They were saying that BTC is going to 4k. So i guess for us to figure it out, we would need to understand the difference between accumulation vs distribution. I think that distribution is when the volume is spread amongst many different buyers rather than one accumulating. If only a few players are accumulating, then they control the market. They can cause sell offs and they can allow for major increases to occur.

So since you think its accumulation, then you think that this was all manipulation to get better pricing? Also, a youtuber named Bitraged was mentioning that this could have been USDT pumping the market.

Let me know if im on the right track.
+7 回覆
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