This is the long term projection of what, Bitcoin can do in the next 10 years, if we repeat history. BTC’s first run, from 2 dollars to 1100 dollars back in 2011-2014 had a duration of 789 days, if we repeat the history and have the same 637 days-long retrace as in 2014 from 1100 to 180 USD we could have a bottom of 4000 USD this season and start a new bullrun in late 2019. Let’s assume that the whole run, first 2 bull-runs + bearmarket 2015 + bullrun 2016-2017 is 1 cycle and we would repeat this in the future we would have a situation as I presented in the chart above. As you can see, i gave all the bullruns the same duration, same to the retrace’s. This fit’s perfectly in a channel i made (grey zone) and this could be our main support and resistance in the coming years. This projection is just history-based. The chance that Bitcoin’s leadership in marketcap gets replaced by another crypto-currency is very possible, this could be and will be very likely Ethereum or Litecoin. But let’s forget that “possibility” and think of what Bitcoin’s value can become in the next few years. If we do sustain in this channel we could reach new ATH’s in the next “bubble’s”. First, new, ATH would be from 50K - 100K. This is possible and realistic with new big investor’s being interested in Bitcoin, but possibly just waiting for another bull-run. We would need a market-cap for Bitcoin around and above 1 trillion USD to reach these numbers. If(!) we repeat history like i mentioned before, we would repeat the cycle from 2011 until now in the next bull-run. Starting with a first run to 50-100K, with a small bear(trap) before further run to 200-300K USD with will touch the resistance of the channel. 300 000$ / BTC sound unrealistic, but 20 000$ / BTC sounded unrealistic too when BTC reached an ATH at 10$, back in the days, haha. If BTC maintain’s its growth, a next bubble would reach values in the millions. Thats insane, thinking of how many people will become millionaires/billionaires because of crypto, and that sounds….too….good….tooo…beee.trruueee. But yeah, who knows. Maybe Mc’Afee’s prediction of 1 million/usd isn’t that unreasonable at all. Ofcourse, i don’t guarantee that this will turn out. It’s just a projection of what would happen if we repeat history. Happy trading!
Please comment your thoughts/feedback!
評論
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We reached my third bottom of 4000usd today! We bounced of 4K with enough volume, lets see if it holds here.
評論
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Update. As expected a sell-off occured in Dec 2018 bringing us to the "third bottom" of ca 4000 USD. The fractal shows sideways action until late 2019 while we accumulate for the next possible run. Is this the time to sell your house and buy all the coins you can?
The only difference is ,we don't have a MtGox this year,so everything will be way faster. In 2020 we will hit at least 30-40k
Bull2025
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@genie300, Or next year
zxmaster
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@genie300, be patient my friend)
bastille1762
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@Bull2025, COVID would like to have a word with you.
KaVin
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full of bull crap.
FritzWagner
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What about Wyckoff ?
easy-peasy-x
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@FritzWagner, Spot on observations. The decreasing volume lately was exactly what I was thinking. Silence before a bull run. I think right now we're going through weak hands shakeout and we could still make a flash crash below 6k to trigger panic selling - one last bit of accumulation. Market makers have accumulated around the 6-7k range and obviously they intend to sell around +40k and not at 5k..
Domsax48
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@citizen_x, that would be "panic buy" for me at the bottom ;)
ClayBear
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@Domsax48, I hope you and citizen X are loading up rn