BTC/USD | Long-term price prediction | Sinking to 4932$ ?

Good day Bitcoin lovers/haters,
Today I'm posting a long-term prediction for BTC/USD price ( Bitstamp ) and unfortunately the price indicator still follows the down trend, which is most likely to hit the main support line of 4932$.

Now let me explain and argument my point of view:
1. As John Murphy stated in his book "Technical analysis of financial markets" on the second page we see 3 premises on which the technical approach is based:
- "Market action discounts everything"
- "Prices move in trends"
- "History repeats itself"
If I open a BTC/USD price chart from february 2012 until mid 2013 I can notice a perfect clone of price movement that we can see these days. Visually all candles are equal.
I can even finish the analysis here, but let me give you further info...

2. If you open a math function analysis program and enter price data by days/hours/years you will see a "Rational model"/"Steinhart model"/"Reciprocal logarithm" (+2 extra), which represents most suitable bitcoin's price function form that has predicted a BTC/USD price plunge.

3. Also judging by the history. Open BTC/USD price with a time interval of 1 day and scroll left until you notice that a main exponential growth of BTC/USD price chart consisting of smaller exponential functions. That principle can also be seen in "Sierpinski triangle" (an object is a composition of smaller objects that has just the same size ratio). So I mean that main exponential line of BTC/USD now is becoming a part of something greater than it is. In other words the graph finishes itself in order to create a new exponential line of BTC/USD. That feature has been going on from the Bitcoin's "birth", but I have no idea why analytics and media haven't been announcing that evident fact.

That is everything that I wanted to say for this moment, this analysis will be updated and commented every day (I hope).
I just want a few people to know some basic for me things that are laid on the surface.

*Red line = place where price will decrease/support line (= step 1).
*Red dashed line = further price decrease after "step 1" (= step 2).

*Green line = place where price will increase (= step 1).
*Green dashed line = further price increase after "step 1" (= step 2).

*Grey dashed line = undefined type of line (red? / green?).
評論: In order you don't misunderstand:

*Red line = place to hit when decreasing (= step 1).
*Red dashed line = further place to hit when decreasing after so called "step 1" (= step 2).

*Green line = place to hit when increasing (= step 1).
*Green dashed line = further place to hit when increasing after so called "step 1" (= step 2).

*Grey dashed line = undefined type of line (red? / green?).
I agree. I foresee a plunge down to 5000-6000, so your red dashed line. After that I think big volalility will be over, and the future will see much more temperate development. Mainly because of the stricter rules, regulations and bans by governments and big financial institutions. They will have taken more control over trading by then and only big traders will be able to make big money, purely because of higher volumes. Smaller traders won't have the capital that will be needed to make the kind of money they could until now. You can still make some money, but you will need more capital yet earn smaller winnings. But I hope I'm wrong about that :-)
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