I've been thinking to myself for a little while, when are people going to throw out this "down trend" line that everyone is using? It doesn't seem to mean much to the current price action, as the price seems to just move above and below it with very little resistance or support. I did what I always do, I hit the charts and started drawing lines. Here's what happened.
I went to the weekly chart and drew a trend line on there. It matched up perfectly with the ATH, the very next candlestick, and the top of the candlestick for the week of 3/5. We have a trendline. Now if you look at my chart above, you'll see what happens when you zoom out to the 4 hour chart. The ATH is above our new downward trend line. If you throw out the ATH, let's call it the outliar here.... the top of the downtrend line actually starts at the highs of 3/18.
It is my opinion that this is the REAL downtrend line and we are still not out of it. Things have been looking pretty good for BTC over the last day or two and it is possible that we test this downtrend line soon. If you take a look at the chart again you'll see that if we do test and break above the line... we'll be completing a massive inverse head and shoulders pattern dating back to 3/18, which kind of negates the smaller inverse head and shoulders that @MagicPoopCannon has been talking about for the last month. Is it still there? Yes it is and it can still happen, but I place more importance on the larger pattern at play, especially when it can complete before the smaller one.
Anyways, these are just my thoughts. No predictions here, just what I'm seeing.
What do you guys think? At what point do YOU throw out a trendline?
Edit: Here is a look at the weekly chart, where you can see where I got the trendline from.
I went to the weekly chart and drew a trend line on there. It matched up perfectly with the ATH, the very next candlestick, and the top of the candlestick for the week of 3/5. We have a trendline. Now if you look at my chart above, you'll see what happens when you zoom out to the 4 hour chart. The ATH is above our new downward trend line. If you throw out the ATH, let's call it the outliar here.... the top of the downtrend line actually starts at the highs of 3/18.
It is my opinion that this is the REAL downtrend line and we are still not out of it. Things have been looking pretty good for BTC over the last day or two and it is possible that we test this downtrend line soon. If you take a look at the chart again you'll see that if we do test and break above the line... we'll be completing a massive inverse head and shoulders pattern dating back to 3/18, which kind of negates the smaller inverse head and shoulders that @MagicPoopCannon has been talking about for the last month. Is it still there? Yes it is and it can still happen, but I place more importance on the larger pattern at play, especially when it can complete before the smaller one.
Anyways, these are just my thoughts. No predictions here, just what I'm seeing.
What do you guys think? At what point do YOU throw out a trendline?
Edit: Here is a look at the weekly chart, where you can see where I got the trendline from.
評論:
edit: the inverse head and shoulders would date back to 12-18... sorry about the typo