Hello everybody. First of all I would like you to know, I just started trading yesterday and it didn't end well when i panic sold my long trade at 7700$/BTC. So trust me when I say: I have absolutely no clue what i am doing here!! Anyway, I just wanted to share my thoughts.
D4rkEnergy actually pointed this scenario out in his most recent analysis. I'm talking about the 30% chance of breaking up from the ascending triangle which started forming on the low this morning.
The upper resistance is very strong and if we fail to crush it, I concur in most trader's opinion that we are likely going down to around the 6k level.
However, I see some strong signals that support the bullish scenario. Take a look at the EMA's. On the 30 minute chart which I posted here you can see a possible cross to a bullish form. On lower time frames we already have a bullish movement. On the 1h chart and even on the daily chart this could happen as well, if and only if the breakout to the top is strong enough to go to at least 8800.
For clarification, I call it a bullish EMA when the signal is above the fast EMA, which is above the medium EMA, which is above the slow EMA. (I use 8,23 and 42, though I think most analysts prefer 9,23 and 54 or so..) . I dont know if that is even a valid TA =D .. But looking at the charts, it confirms, when the 30 minute EMAs are getting bullish, we can expect a 1-2 days rising uptrend.
Another indicator of a possible uptrend is this awesome long-legged, nearly dragonfly doji which formed on the daily just today.
If we break out to the bottom of our triangle, this scenario is no longer valid. Also, be aware, even if we break out to the top this could be a bulltrap. Adjust your stop losses accordingly if you try to play it.
The Apex of the triangle will happen in the early morning of 16.03. That's in a few hours. Let's hope we can finally end this misery for btc and show those bears where they belong (and take their money).
D4rkEnergy actually pointed this scenario out in his most recent analysis. I'm talking about the 30% chance of breaking up from the ascending triangle which started forming on the low this morning.
The upper resistance is very strong and if we fail to crush it, I concur in most trader's opinion that we are likely going down to around the 6k level.
However, I see some strong signals that support the bullish scenario. Take a look at the EMA's. On the 30 minute chart which I posted here you can see a possible cross to a bullish form. On lower time frames we already have a bullish movement. On the 1h chart and even on the daily chart this could happen as well, if and only if the breakout to the top is strong enough to go to at least 8800.
For clarification, I call it a bullish EMA when the signal is above the fast EMA, which is above the medium EMA, which is above the slow EMA. (I use 8,23 and 42, though I think most analysts prefer 9,23 and 54 or so..) . I dont know if that is even a valid TA =D .. But looking at the charts, it confirms, when the 30 minute EMAs are getting bullish, we can expect a 1-2 days rising uptrend.
Another indicator of a possible uptrend is this awesome long-legged, nearly dragonfly doji which formed on the daily just today.
If we break out to the bottom of our triangle, this scenario is no longer valid. Also, be aware, even if we break out to the top this could be a bulltrap. Adjust your stop losses accordingly if you try to play it.
The Apex of the triangle will happen in the early morning of 16.03. That's in a few hours. Let's hope we can finally end this misery for btc and show those bears where they belong (and take their money).
評論:
Quick update: I expect one more test of the bottom trendline. Don't get scared if that happens. But keep your stop loss close below, in case we fall straight through into the darkness.
