Will BTC reach <5k target?

Taiwan_Bear 已更新   
Two weeks since my last TA and this little stubborn son of a ...... is still going down within this tiny downtrend channel . Will it break upwards? I think so. But when?

I have simplified my previous chart as I have received feedback from people saying the chart is difficult to understand. My idea is still the same in which my main target is still around the 4.7k level. However, I do see the potential of BTC to go above the previous high $6880 in the next week or two and the possibility of another few weeks of consolidation while market is indecisive. At around 7.5k, I think the market will be divided quite evenly between buyers and sellers. There will be a lot of sellers if BTC starts to drop again as these people will think BTC is going down to 3k. But at the same time there will be some investors who might take the advantage to accumulate BTC and creating a short squeeze. This is just my speculation. I do not control the market. If the price action goes the other way, then just adapt a new thinking. This is trading - if a support level gets broken, you short on the pullback or if a resistance gets broken you long on the pullback.

Whether BTC will drop below the previous high of $6880 again once it goes above it, will need to be observed later on. But if it does, then 4.7k is definitely in play. But, will it go below 3k? Maybe. In trading, anything is possible, especially in Cryptos. However, there are three things that I would like to point out:

1. Weekly EMA200 is approaching higher. This will act as another layer of support, in addition to the already strong confluence of support around 4.6-5.2k.
2. If you have a look of the weekly chart below, the bearish candles are getting smaller and smaller. This means the bears are losing momentum after an extended move to the downside. If this week's candle can close with a doji then I expect the price to go higher next week.
3. One of my best friends contacted me yesterday asking me if I know any seller who has great amount of BTC willing to sell to him as he has buyers who are urged to buy at the current price. So, if you do, PM me. This is not saying that BTC is going to shoot up from here, but an indication of potential buyers are ready to step in.

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Taiwan Bear.

If you have already missed the boat, do not buy it now as you are buying into resistance.

It's better to buy either at the retest of $5800 (if sellers cannot push the price down further), or at pull-back after breakout of $6880.

There is a possible 2618 formations on BTC. Remember my education post about 2618?

Not saying that it will definitely drop to 0.618, or it will def bounce up at 0.618, but a possibility. Therefore, watch the price action around the 0.618 level to see if there is any bullish pin bar, divergence, inside bar break up ...etc.

See, the best strategy to trade cryptos is to buy at long term support, take half profits when r/r ratio reaches 1:2 r/r ratio and let the remaining positions run risk free.

If you want to keep day trade Cryptos, open and close positions every few hours, then good luck.

Click & play:

Please don' tell me you FOMO'd when the price was $6880.

As mentioned in my last update, I did buy @ $6224. However, please keep in mind this trade was entered because the risk reward ratio is great. I am not using any leverage. And I am still saving a large sum of my capitals to buy in between 4.7-5.2k.

Currently the bart pattern is still in play and BTC is ranging. If you are a conservative trader, wait for breakout of the range to enter your trade.

1:2 risk/reward ratio has been achieved. 5%+ profits in pocket. I am closing 40% of my profits here and move the SL of remaining positions to BE.

Might consider to use the 40% profits on pull-back at around $6390 if the price action is good.

Give it a like or leave some comments if you like the trade.