It's starting to look like the plot of a movie. Half of the market seems to try to convince (themselves) we're bullish. The other half is trying to convince (themselves) we're bearish. Everyone looking for validation everywhere.
I'm currently out in USDT and sold the three tops. Really not convinced this is going higher so I'm more on the bearish side. But I know I could be wrong, so I'm ready to turn sides at any time I see this going up.
1. First reason I'm still bearish is the 3D MACD line. It has just crossed down and I think there is a lot of room to go lower.
2. It does look like a Head & Shoulders formed.
3. At this precise moment, BTCUSD is within an ascending channel. These kind of channels tend to break down.
4. Yet another one, BTCJPY is within a rising wedge and 1H MACD wants down.
5. We're currently at the last pitchfork resistance.
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There is something I see bullish though, which is the current triangle fractal we're in, resembles the one just before.
If this plays, we should dump one more time, bounce, and then go up.
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Currently, my advise to everyone who is anxious to buy back in, or doesn't know for sure if it's a good idea to sell now and take profits for a three month bull run, is to wait and see the direction where this triangle breaks. If it breaks up with volume, buy in and sell around 3800. If it breaks down, well, don't buy. If you're holding use these key levels to get an idea about what to do.
Good luck!
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Fractals are very important tools for measurement. Using fractals within my previous idea, I managed to forecast the top of the first bull run on May 25th. Check it out yourself here:
Even though there are five bearish signals, the bullish one is huge.
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I also think if it falls down now, the next support at 2420 is key. If it bounces upwards with volume, I'm going bullish. If it dumps, more likely the bear trend will continue.
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We're now at the 2420 level and there is no volume. That's bad.
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Seems like the fractal is going to win.
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Two days later, seems like the bears are winning. Tough battle.
I really like the fractal idea. It is extremely hard to tell which way the market is going right now. One thing I would say is that if it were to have crashed, I would not have expected it to bounce so nicely on the bottom of the triangle. Alts seem to be bouncing as well, so if they are to be used as an indicator of the current sentiment in the market, I would be leaning towards the bullish side. Could go either way.