The 235 day cycle in Bitcoin corresponds with major highs in the overall price. Our current cycle completes on October 10, signalling the end of the megabull and the beginning of a bear trend (historically speaking). During past megabulls we always got parabolic shifts in price, something that hasn't really happened yet in the current bull market. I believe this parabolic move, fueled by FOMO, will be triggered if we break past the logarithmic resistance shown on this chart. This resistance has been tested on multiple occasions in 2017 and always resulted in a sell-off. Recently we hit the resistance exactly when the China FUD started; it was merely a ploy to shake out weak hands and allow smart money to scoop up BTC on the cheap.
This prediction for 10k can also be supported by Elliot Wave Theory. Bitcoin's price structure currently follows the Elliot Wave sequence and fulfills the requirements which make it valid. - Elliott Wave (2) cannot retrace past the start of Elliott Wave (1) - Elliott Wave (3) cannot be the shortest wave in a completed 5 wave sequence - Elliott Wave (4) cannot retrace into Elliott Wave (1) Furthermore; Elliot Wave Theory dictates that following the completion of 5 waves, an (A, B, C) correction will take place before the new up-trend begins. This correction would complete over the duration of our next 235 day cycle. mtpredictor.com/pages/Elliott-Wave-Rules
Refer to an idea I posted at STIA earlier this year, predicting 10k and covering 235 day cycle: Refer to Lowstrife's 235 day cycle idea for more info on that:
評論
⋅
This is going to take a bit longer than Oct 9... but we are making good progress. Only resistance standing in our way now is 5k and the Log resistance. Shouldn't be too hard to break past thanks to FOMO and Bitcoin regaining its marketcap dominance.
If we will break upper trendline, bitcoin will die fast as popping bubble :) It will loose any stability to market and would be worthless.
junkofdavid2
⋅
By the way, you may be part of the group with either likes/dislikes Tone Vays, but just like you, he is also bullish now but predicts a possible future huge correction down to around 1300, since that was a previous high on the monthly chart which was never tested as a support
junkofdavid2
⋅
*I mean,prediction at STIA
junkofdavid2
⋅
That bear market theory after 10K is scary, and it makes sense based on your previous (super accurate) prediction last May.
What advice to HODLers like me? Perhaps sell a % of coins near 10k?
orminlange
⋅
Wave 2 and 4 cannot have similar inner structure, so this counting must be changed, according to Elliot Waves Principles.