This market reminds me of a long drive as a child where it seemed like forever until we got where we were going and all we said to Pops is "Are we there yet?". Well the Crypto Market is no different right now, However, we must keep in mind we are still up overall 60% since August which is a great return by any metrics, and this is using only a simple buy and hold strategy.
This is not a time to panic or sell out if you believe in the technology. Do you think COMEX and the CBOE listed these equities if they thought they would go to zero in 4 months? NO and though it can, it is a risk I am willing to take. This is simply a short to mid term bear market. What I mean by short to mid term is less than 6 months "Alledgedly".
Technically we broke through the 7666 area and the selloff was swift. The next resistance level is at the 7246 level which we will once again look for a reversal signal. A breach of this level and we are likely to test the extreme low of 5865-6615. One note there is an interesting level that comes up on my chart around 6079. This is a unique level and one where we likely get a reversal if we do continue to pullback. It is also the recent previous low so there is likely to be major support here. I also want to mention a couple side items.
1) I added the moving averages because many are asking. I do not use them for longer term positioning though if I am day trading I do use the HMA's. But I am not daytrading so these are nothing more than "good news feeds" in my opinion. Most of the time selling at the "Death Cross" is selling at the bottom. We already broke the 200D SMA so it is already priced in in my opinion. However what I do use moving averages for is to look at the slope of the prevailing trend. As you can see the 50 day is slowly flattening out not increasing to the downside though a close this low will not help the bull thesis. The 200 is still slightly positive to flat. In my opinion the slope of the MA's is more important than a crossover etc. Looking at the slope of the moving averages provides insight to the slope of the trend. They are flat or neutral.
2) If you look at the failed double top it is setting up similarly here as a failed double bottom. Actually there are more and more Fibonacci levels that are around the 7250 level then I could possibly post and we just added another. The 0.618 extension of the previous bearish wave.
3) Why not sell and buy cheaper is a common question. Well regardless of the Oracles of TV' you never know when the reverse is coming. I again am not buying here but I definitely am not selling either. Years ago I was the perfect bottom finder when I did sell in times like these. I have learned its just better to hold and look for a reversal.
4) The levels we put on charts are there to provide us direction and areas to look for reversals either bull or bear. These are not crystal balls. But they provide a gauge as to the market conditions and give us some direction. Like driving the car you get here, you pull the map out and go OK I have to go this way.
Summary: Whether we go lower from here I am un-moved. I am in this for the long term and am looking for a level to add not sell. I remember only 2 months ago when I posted I was shaving some ETH at 1225 I received a ton of flak that we would never see 1000 again. Well just like that post I am not a seller here if anything I would be a buyer. Now I am not buying either until we get a signal. I know I am saying the same old same old but we are simply in wait mode and not being impulsive.
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I see a lot of comments on "Bubble" fear, capitulation, Greed etc.... Sounds great and makes for good you tube videos, but this is the reality of a bubble. Bubbles separate the weak from the strong pertaining to stocks or companies. Not all companies go to zero. Here is something you do not see on these so called "experts" sites.
Those that lost were those that sold at the bottom.
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This is why we keep saying "KEEP THE BIG PICTURE IN MIND". I'm not scared, attached, moved either way, or anything else. Cryptos is a small part of my overall portfolio and only if you have tooo much exposure should you be nervous. Bitcoin goes to zero so does the space!
Yes I heard all the same comments concerning GOLD in late 2015. It was dead, going to $600 $450 even. The gold bubble has popped. Hmmmmm! Yes I started buying!
評論
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As we pullback from the 6615 resistance level we are looking at two levels of importance. The 7200 level is the level that needs to be broken for us to turn bullish. This level needs to be held. At this point I almost want to see two closes on the 12 hour chart to confirm.
The level I am looking at for a continued decline is the 6427 level. Keep in mind between the 5865 and 6615 level this is an likely area for a reversal so being short here is dangerous.
Regardless of the calls for zero I am not selling here. If you do not believe in the space in general then invest in IBM and TSM as they both have blockchain exposure and pay nice dividends. Personally I believe this is just a typical correction that ALL markets go through. Scared money don't make money! I am actually looking at some alts like WABI and DRGN to add here.
I don't think CBOE per se cares whether this goes to zero or not. It is however a first step towards institutional money. But do we really believe that the FEDs and ECBs and Corporate America will let this become a game changer without them controlling it and -of course- taking the gains to be made? In fact we see first signs of corporates trying to take over control:
- Goldman backed Circle taking over Poloniex
- Papyal filing blockchain patents
- Future listings
What this market needs is regulations mainly related to ICO's, and a fully regulated exchange, combining Crypto and FIAT. Pretty sure Goldman didn't buy Poloniex just to facilitate their own trading (which of course they already do, big time). Whoever offers the first regulated exchange will wipe out all other exchanges for sure. Binance making millions definitely attracted the attention of the big boys.
However, until then, I believe the market is going down, despite a few double-digit spikes, for several reasons:
1) Hundreds of thousands Miners selling their coins asap to cover their costs for investing into Rigs. Many of them are not professionals, so Panic all over.
2) No money inflow whatsoever. Private money driving the rally in 2017 is gone, many lost a ton of money, they are pretty much gone for good.
3) ICO's cashing in what they raised and exchange to FIAT to ensure operations for the next years. This is particularly true for ETH, and one of the main reasons why ETH is way underperforming BTC.
4) No institutional money until dust has settled and regulations are in place. Until then lots of "bad" news and turmoil.
5) Last but not least Possibly huge scams out there. IE CFTC outstanding Subpoenas to Bitfinex/Tether. I don't know when and how this proceeds, but if this hits the markets, it will hit it big time.
So only two possibilities left: If you are a HODLER, fair enough, I would however not bet on "in 2 years from now we will see 50'000 for sure". The technology is here to stay, but are cryptos? What if Google or Amazon launch their own coin making dozens of crypto coins obsolete? And believe me they have much more power to push that than any ICO I have see so far. It is naive to believe that the free and indepent coin will change it all and all the big boys and big corporates are just standing at the sideline applauding. I wish it would, but reality will kick in sooner or later.
Or you can trade the markets. We will see fibonaccis and double tops and death crosses all over, all I believe in are Trends, and I use charts to support my judgement. And so far cryptos are the easiest market to trade compared to Equity, commodities or FX: Huge volatility with large trends, and still relatively little algo trading.
Happy trading!
goldbug1
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@marco8484, Fair assessment. Unfortunately in the US you can not short these markets so you can only trade one way.
marco8484
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@goldbug1, Hi I'm in Europe so didn't know about that. Actually made most of my gains in the past 3 months with longs. I do have some shorts, but it requires you to deposit equity with the exchange, something I actually try to avoid as I keep my coins in my wallets once I made a trade. In any case you can be sure that some people made a ton of money shorting these markets, I don't think it is a coincidence the downturn started with the Futures listing.
UnknownUnicorn121770
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KnifeCatch.exe Unexpected error. Please return in September.
satertrading
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@TomPip, LOL
Giovi6969
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@TomPip,
LOL
stevewalkr
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Thanks Mr G, wise worlds as always. My take on it is this.
If we were taking in 2023 and you were offered a time machine to go back and buy any of the main coins on the 21st December 2017, you’d sell your Grandmother to go back and buy at what is now an ATH point in time. You’d be cursing you couldn’t buy more.
Providing you set your trades so you can leave them as investments for now the technology is here to stay and to will rise in time.
If it does hit “zero”, which means approaching that point but never quite arriving, then it’ll be the best buying opportunity we’ll ever have. I’ll be finding extra cash to buy more even though my existing portfolio will look like a carpet bomb experiment gone wrong.
In the context of a 5 year investment there is likely nothing to worry about, and it gives people like me who spent way to much time checking daily change an opportunity to do something else with your time.
Patience is everything. Let’s see what the sentiment is in August or November this year. Big changes can have happened by then.
Great post. My opinion; In this case, it’s nothing more than the biggest players manipulating the price to try and squeeze out the middle and low class investors who bought crypto with credit cards. Those who are living paycheck to paycheck and have to suck up the loss and sell off their positions in order to pay their bills.
I don't think so. I think people like you and me sold their holdings because we knew going into this that BTC is a highly centralized and essentially worthless platform. If you want to talk about "BTC Manipulation" you should probably aim your guns at the two Chinese guys who run the whole show. They've been in control of almost ALL of the hashpower for 6 or 7 years now.
BTC is failing because it's a weak platform. Not because of some 'big bad manipulators'.
The sooner the Crypto community / exchanges can ignore the price action of BTC (and introduce more fiat trading pairs) the sooner the market will recover. But if we continue to hold BTC as some kind of (shitty) "standard" token, the entire industry is doomed.
- Goldman backed Circle taking over Poloniex
- Papyal filing blockchain patents
- Future listings
What this market needs is regulations mainly related to ICO's, and a fully regulated exchange, combining Crypto and FIAT. Pretty sure Goldman didn't buy Poloniex just to facilitate their own trading (which of course they already do, big time). Whoever offers the first regulated exchange will wipe out all other exchanges for sure. Binance making millions definitely attracted the attention of the big boys.
However, until then, I believe the market is going down, despite a few double-digit spikes, for several reasons:
1) Hundreds of thousands Miners selling their coins asap to cover their costs for investing into Rigs. Many of them are not professionals, so Panic all over.
2) No money inflow whatsoever. Private money driving the rally in 2017 is gone, many lost a ton of money, they are pretty much gone for good.
3) ICO's cashing in what they raised and exchange to FIAT to ensure operations for the next years. This is particularly true for ETH, and one of the main reasons why ETH is way underperforming BTC.
4) No institutional money until dust has settled and regulations are in place. Until then lots of "bad" news and turmoil.
5) Last but not least Possibly huge scams out there. IE CFTC outstanding Subpoenas to Bitfinex/Tether. I don't know when and how this proceeds, but if this hits the markets, it will hit it big time.
So only two possibilities left: If you are a HODLER, fair enough, I would however not bet on "in 2 years from now we will see 50'000 for sure". The technology is here to stay, but are cryptos? What if Google or Amazon launch their own coin making dozens of crypto coins obsolete? And believe me they have much more power to push that than any ICO I have see so far. It is naive to believe that the free and indepent coin will change it all and all the big boys and big corporates are just standing at the sideline applauding. I wish it would, but reality will kick in sooner or later.
Or you can trade the markets. We will see fibonaccis and double tops and death crosses all over, all I believe in are Trends, and I use charts to support my judgement. And so far cryptos are the easiest market to trade compared to Equity, commodities or FX: Huge volatility with large trends, and still relatively little algo trading.
Happy trading!