$BTC just finished leg 3? Looking at $5.000,-

Oh boy......trying to chart the beast BTC :-)
In my previous chart I targeted BTC for 4k+, it blasted to there without any reasonable correction.
I had expected a 5 waves up towards 4k, but it seems to be a 3 legs pattern which gives me reason to think that we'll see a leg 4 as a sort of correction and another leg up......
The charts for those scenarios,you can find underneath (related ideas).

Looking at the first 3 waves, using fibonacci I've come to this chart. It seems we made a top, exactly on a Fibo level.
It's not sure yet 4 will get that deep AND depending where 4 can be determined, we can set a target for 5.
Using my indicators, they tell me we could get a corretioion any moment.

But hey, maybe this chart is rubbish on 10 minutes, its BTC remember?

Trade what you see, not what you think!
評論: Will update this chart untill the structure changes and we have a clear new pattern. When I'm wrong, I'm wrong..... I stll dont have a crystal ball but trying to follow the patterns
評論: The blue trend line is holding well....
A break out to the upside is more likely now.
Correction already done?
評論: Wanted to post this chart, but it looks it already broke the pattern to the upside
評論: BTC broke trendline. Lets see how this contiunues and if we see bigger correction
評論: Possible scenario.....BTC is making a big bullflag.
Based on Fibo, I can see this happening.
If you really want to short BTC, I would advise to wait for break to the downside of this bullflag. (4) and (5) are placed as indication. Targetboxes are based on Fibonacci extensions.....

評論: I made a little mistake in the chart above.....
I determined the targetbox and draw the trendlines and couldn't imagine it would go there in 3 legs (but fibo extensions are always 3 legs) so I made a 5 legs pattern of it. When I noticed on mobile the sudden rise of BTC I thought that "my" bullflag got invalidated.
Now I see that it hit the targetbox upper level perfectly and realized the 3-5 issue.
This is how it should be, although I would be surprised if we dive from here into the depths......
評論: typo above "bullflag" should be bearflag
評論: BTC made a new high but didnt break next fibo level and is showing bearish divergence.
As before: not an advice to go short, just add to your longs when btc makes bigger correction
評論: The above mentioned bearish divergence is working out.
Bearflag got broken, first target already hit. Expecting more downside in coming days
評論: BTC is in a flat pattern which should be a continuation pattern for further down.
Break of the blue line is a good opportunity to go short. Watch priceaction near yellow trendline for bounce or break towards my mid term target
評論: BTC following the expected pattern nicely. Watch priceaction near yellow trendline of be prepared for a break down earlier.

評論: Targetted area reached where we should see a bounce, but for now not any signs for that. I'll try to follow up today on low timeframe.

評論: Looking at todays movements in BTC, I've come to the following:
We finally had the long awaited correction which perfectly bounced in the targetted area. In a ABC-correction, we seem to have finished the 4th leg out of 5.
If (a big IF) BTC continues its upmove, we can determine the next area for taking profit.
Due to the fact that the correction was later as in the first chart in this cyclus, the target should be higher also. Targetbox is on the chart.
RSI breaking its trendline would confirm further upmove.
If BTC can't make new highs, we could see a bigger correction towards 3000.

評論: Looking at small timeframe, I noticed bearish divergence in MACD what brings me to the idea thatwe'll get 1 more correction after 1 more (small) leg up.
All targets on chart

評論: Update, beware for breakdown
More info on chart

評論: Making new high, cracked the red trendline so we are still on route towards 6000.
Tried to determine the target and possible path in several ways, but all give more or less the same result.
Just lean back and enjoy the btc show (and pray that alts dont suffer too much).

評論: The bull needs a correction on its way to $6.000,-

Doing an ABC correction, this is possible bounce area

評論: We've reached the blue box. Should bounce from here towards $6.000,=
評論: Starting to think, we might see one more leg down.
Watch priceaction near (4)

評論: Its about time to update a bit ;-)
As in the first set up, we reached 5k. I was expecting further up but BTC is struggling a bit past week.
I'm expecting a move towards the blue trendline where its decision time.
Break up would mean continuation of uptrend towards 6k. Bouncing off there, would mean a bigger correction and (C) is first target.
評論: We're already breaking out of the big upchannel to make this ABC-correction.
3400-3440 seems to be next stop on 240 TF


I am following you since any days and really liked your strategies.
But for BTC it seems the channel you created has some flaw.
Its not perfect and the points you considered were alredy a part of previous channel that i traded yesterday.
See this
A retest seems defenitly logical
spot on man... let's see what's next move...bouncing back a bit but bulls could still hit i think...
I would expect a much bigger correction after this big rally, but with all the positive news bitcoin is getting, segwit succes, next btc split in november, so many media suddenly backing and promising on btc, i doubt it will start a big correction soon.
what do you think?
Crypto_Ed PollysCracker
@PollysCracker, trade what you see, not what you think ;-)
+2 回覆
PollysCracker Crypto_Ed
@Crypto_Ed, the problem is that on daily chart scaled to years i see a big correction coming sooner or later but scaled to months it could just keep going up seeing last correction didnt break the supportline. So not sure what to see here ^^
Crypto_Ed PollysCracker
@PollysCracker, well...then just raise your SL
PollysCracker Crypto_Ed
@Crypto_Ed, aight, but i'm waiting for the correction to buy more, I guess waiting for the next retest, (if theres gonna be one) will bring more clarity :)
How do you see the current development? Another bearflag?
Crypto_Ed jpaarhuis
@jpaarhuis, on mobile so crappy Charting and maybe wrong....but for now it looks like a flat. Trend Continuation Pattern (down).
+1 回覆
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