My thoughts are still quite bearish for the mid term with quite some volatility. Most of the reasoning is visible in the chart. Additional reasoning is that weekly RSI has more than enough room to drop, also weekly MACD has crossed and as of yet the balance between longs vs shorts is still too much skewed to longs. The long/short ratio was als not significantly changed when BTC was dropping to 9.2k, my reasoning is that much more pain is needed to build up fuel to go up. Note that this TA is based on repeating previous pattern, a valid question is how often and long same patterns will repeat. The predicted pattern shows some divergence between volumetric profile and the forecast. Another point of criticism is that the projection spans over months, in the mean time new legislation can be introduced and/or there can be important developments such as the lightning network. In any case if the current trend continues there is at least some pain to come.
This is exactly what I beleive (and hope) will occurr. While you have listed your Best, Probable and Worst cases, I think they should be listed the exact opposite. I think the lower we can get BTC the better chance of a good recovery. My comments are also extremly biased as I am HODLing ALT's that I would love to dump at 14K in hopes of a good drop to go yard sale shopping. :)
Erhenius
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@Snacks, As the price develops we see that 12k posed too much resistance (see light blue dashed line). I seriously doubt that we will see 14k in the short term. I expect a retest of 12.2 k and if this breaks, and breaks hard we might have a long term support. If 12.2 doesn't break we have a problem... I would think at least 10.5k retest if not sub 10k (9.8k-9.2k).