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Both a bullish count and a bearish Elliot wave count are above. Regardless of which side you are on, we are likely in a 3-wave flat (3-3-5) development, and a correction/downward trend is due soon.
For the bearish scenario, if B rises above 9.9k, the current ABC zigzag structure would be invalidated, and would likely turn to a flat. Since flats generally signal trend continuation, it could potentially mean the 5 waves to the upside has not finished, and we are going to have an extended 5th wave (much higher than the bullish scenario on the right).
Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
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We are at the point of a coin flip on the direction. I lean towards your short scenario. BTC is too correlated to the US stock market. If that correlation didn't exist, I would lean to the long side. With the China/US relationship going down hill, on 31 July AAPL reports with the expectation the outlook is grim, the FANG stocks holding up the market, possible shut downs again due the virus, insider selling, bearish divergence on the S&P, initial unemployment claims going up, and most stocks going down, I lean towards a drop in the stock market. BTC will follow.
Now, the FED could jump back in and hold the market up. Also, a new stimulus bill could hold the market up. If the market is held up, BTC could start the run to 20k. I need confirmation before I jump back in. Right now, I'm flipping a coin and waiting for direction.
@josh2311, I agree BTC is still pretty correlated to SPX, especially for larger moves. For the current directional bias, I'm on the short side as well, even with the 10k attempt in the last few hours. Margin retail sentiment is overly bullish now. The higher this continues before CME opens on Monday, the more likely we'll experience a long squeeze.
"For the bearish scenario, if B rises above 9.9k, the current ABC zigzag structure would be invalidated, and would likely turn to a flat. Since flats generally signal trend continuation, it could potentially mean the 5 waves to the upside has not finished, and we are going to have an extended 5th wave (much higher than the bullish scenario on the right)."
was this a joke then?
Phi-Deltalytics
β
@sunnybum, was a way of differentiating between a zigzag correction or a flat correction. Either way, 9k is likely.
@josh2311, Virus is just a headlines.China press agency Xinhua every day updating new cases globally USA is top China zero cases
China is working in full from beginning of Covid
Pab777
β
@Pab777, More Covid cases more stimulus expectation
Now, the FED could jump back in and hold the market up. Also, a new stimulus bill could hold the market up. If the market is held up, BTC could start the run to 20k. I need confirmation before I jump back in. Right now, I'm flipping a coin and waiting for direction.
Great analysis though on the charts.