This is a higher risk trade using half the position sold at 10850. Evaluate your risk tolerance and positioning before taking this trade as this is a continuation trade. This is a summary of the more detailed trade I posted earlier this morning.
After expecting a Bullish Reversal with what looked like the perfect reversal signal we ended up with the makings for a Perfect Storm with nothing but negative news releases every day from the typical Boom Doom and Gloom reporters.
Technical:
Looking at the chart from a broader term perspective I went back to our original wave count. I also looked at several extensions and retraces from various waves and fractals of, for levels of interest as well as levels where there were possible trap setups. On the 13th of March we added the 8860 level which I mentioned was a key support level and once it broke a selloff followed which I explained.
Zooming in on the daily chart I like the 7627-7668 level, where in this short range three levels converge, the 1.618 extension of the double top, the 0.618 extension of the previous bearish leg, and the 0.618 overall correction from 2015. Could this be the perfect storm for a Bear Trap? I also like the fact it is likely under the majority of traders radar as they are focused on 6000 and lower right now and continue to pile into the short trade. Not that we can not go lower, but with short interest being at an all time high this is likely shorts late to the game and those are the fish I’m after.
Summary: I sold my 9743 trade at 10850 and I am buying 1/2 of it back here at 7880 with a tight stop loss of 7620 and a 8454 initial target level R:R 2.2. If we get a signal for a reverse I will add the other half. This is purely a positional trade for the longer term and though I have a target level, I will not necessarily sell there.
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Target hit 8475 7.5% profit in just over 24 hours, will update the overview and rational behind the trade in detail as to the analytics behind the trade and where we go from here. Do you hold or do you cover is up to your personal risk appetite.
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As posted earlier in the trade summary, the 7490 level is critical for the bulls to hold. Personally I think we hold here and will update why shortly. A break of this level then we are likely to test the 5800-6500 area but this is also the perfect Bear trap level.
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A piercing of the 7490 level has arrived as well as the trend line. Here is the issue, if you are in long positions you risk selling at a low at this point, If your in a short position you risk a potential short squeeze. Short interest is decreasing not increasing. How the market reacts here will be critical as we do have a valid 2 leg 535 correction pattern and the current wave v is similar in length but a little longer than wave 1 right at a critical level.
Do we rebound here or move lower is the question all of us have. The formation of a pinbar and continuation move would be a welcomed relief to bulls and could start a short squeeze. A close below 1490 and continuation lower I may shave off some and look to the next area of 5800-6600 as we likely test the February lows.
There is no crystal ball here I am simply being patient and seeing what the market does. We have had two positive trades in BTC recently and we are looking for another one but as we have stated sometimes the best trade is no trade. I am waiting to see how the bars form before jumping in or maybe shaving some off to pick up lower.
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3 leg not two leg
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This was the overall corrective pattern posted last night in our trade analysis.
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In addition I outline 3 different corrective scenarios we were looking at.
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I apologize for the error a close below 7490 not 1490.
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The gold comparison is still valid, this was a nice early reversal signal and shorts will soon be scrambling and calling for market manipulation. Yes the market was manipulated but it was not the whales, it was GREED!
Just saw Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal, on Fox Business. As part of a broader interview with Maria Bartoromo, he spoke favorably about Bitcoin. Although he was a bit skeptical about the long-term prospects of other cryptos, he liked Bitcoin, said he would be long Bitcoin, likes its “store of value” proposition, and indicated it could be the next Gold. He also drew a distinction between Crypto’s so-called “bubble” characteristics and the dot-com bubble: brokers everywhere were pushing dot-com companies, whereas virtually no one on Wall Street is pushing crypto currencies. He said crypto as a tech theme is definitely worth watching.
Refreshing to have some positive news for a change...
Loafer88
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@satertrading, Thank you for sharing this with everyone
KH2017LV
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Don't short BTC under it fair value. Alfaquotes.com created a mining-based formula which put BTC cost at $10547 today.
Buy BTC when it's cheap, below fair value. Don't let the bankers get our BTC cheap. They have more fiat then all of us combine. You short BTC under value, they can buy more BTC then we afford to. All crypto are traded in BTC pair, that mean they get to own out altcoins and the entire crypto assets at discount. Make them pay premium!
I do not understand where your bullishness is coming from. 2017 was a proliferation of new exchanges and new traders, with uncontrolled growing volume and traders. 2018 is the season of control and cleaning ship so that new institutions and money can enter the market. This cleanup has just started and the market correction has just started with a ling way to go yet.
Jbos865
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@woldon, like goldbug1 I'm also bullish on the longterm of months and years. I have seen 2013 and living all the way through to 2017. I personally thought that we would see an ABC back in November but instead we went parabolic and now we are back to those levels from where I expected that correction. (which I thought bottom around 2600)
What I think is, the market is weakened, trust is moving of and traders where hurt a lot during the past few months. Especially new traders who have been attracted in December are most likely moving away right now (or did).
However, all this does not change my bullish view longterm of years. There is a lot of money on the sidelines willing to enter when bullishnes appears again, and people will try to catch the train they missed last time.
woldon
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@Jbos865, agreed about the long term. But 2017 was a bull run for the whole year and not just december. And 2017 was unique compared to previous years also with the flood of icos requiring BTC ETH and NEO to buy in and therefore pumping the market. The market still has a long way to drop before settling down again and commencing a bull trend at the end of 2018. An envisaged drop to 3000 or less is too large to ignore and just hodl. Patience is the name of this game and hodling from levels as high as 13000 just seems like sticking one's head in the sand. I am a day trader and yes later this year I will reinvest for the long term.
@woldon, 2017 was a bull run for the whole year? You can’t be serious. Saying the next bull run will commence in late 2018 is backed by nothing at all, it’s just random.
woldon
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@SafeGamble, 1000 in april, 2500 in july, 6000 in october and 20000 in december. If not a bull run what would you call ut?
Refreshing to have some positive news for a change...