The trading strategy followed here is designed to keep things very simple and minimise the amount of time spent analysing and watching BTC charts. Its very safe, so often big jumps can be missed, but the even bigger falls are missed also.
Rules:
Rule 1: Only buy when 1day StochRSI is bullish and above 30%
Rule 2: Look to enter trade when 4hr StochRSI is bullish and above 30%.
Caveat: 4hr bullish crossovers must also be below 50% (eg a bear trend turning to bull at 90% is avoided)
Rule 3: Time trade entries according to 1hr interval (eg when bullish)
Rule 4: Exit trade when 4hr StochRSI is bearing below 80%
Rule 5: Time trade entries according to 1hr interval (eg when bearish)
Project investment: 100 (for the sake of percentages) Current value: £106.46 Last Entry: 8975
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Forgot to include: First trade - April 15th
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4hr StochRSI has passed Rule 4. However, the Rule 5 is not so obvious. The 1hr interval is below 30% but bullish. We therefore need to look for other signs to close the trade. For the time being, I'll wait and keep a close eye on it. Current Value: 131%
手動結束交易
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Very busy day with non-trading activities. As a result I Was unable to keep a close eye, and closed the trade much too late. Trade closed 9210 Current value: 128%
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Rule 1 now broken, so will be a while before trading can begin again. Lets see how low this goes...
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Rule 1 has passed again, although the post bull cross over is quite tight, so I am using an expanded view to see it. If this holds until Rule 2 passes, we should see a decent movement.
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No Trading The 1 day StochRSI turned bear before the 4hr got going. This is good - I'd much rather the 1day was coming up from the oversold position.
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Hard to Watch and not Enter BTC has been rallying well, so its hard to stick to the strategy. 10% gains, and no entry :(
1 Day has crossed over, but 4hr is bearish. With such a big upswing, I am expecting a pull back. However - thats not part of the strategy :/
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Project has been quiet 1day StochRSI has been on a downtrend for a while and is currently in the process of hitting oversold. During the process I have had time on my hands and have decided to update the 1 day entry set up: After 1D StochRSI has bullish crossover below 30%, consider step1 complete when 2nd bottom bounce has hit and 1Day's last crossover is bullish. Historically, this reduces negative impact of double bounces, and increases the speed of entry on quick upswings.
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its been a long wait....
This strategy avoids big drop but also does not take advantage of initial pumps and bounces. Also meetings all day, so not been able to get close and follow - hence late update.
However, everything is on. Entered at 7395
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The 4 hour is proving tough to work with, price varies too quickly for effective trading.
I therefore did not pull out according to the rules but have done so more recently.
I am quitting this project, but will keep an eye on it for future use.
What's the % success rate of this strategy? Thanks.
reppac
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@alexyeoh, Currently its value is 109.8% of original investment, 9 days after first trade.
For a fuller evaluation, test the strategy from november last year and compare with actual prices. Bear in mind, that trading in real life is often not as successful as trading historical data.
supestv
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@reppac, So your rules work based on historical data since Nov last year?
reppac
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@alexyeoh, My main concern with creating a set of rules was to avoid big drops. I have only checked it over the last 6 months. There are some losses but they are minimised. The best way is always to check it yourself. Personally I wanted a simple set up that could increase my portfolio whilst learning more detailed TA. This is a kind of diary of the project.
supestv
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@reppac, I recommend you look at 4HR OBV as well. It has a clear trend line showing that the market was overall bullish when the price was going up. It has turned positive since $6500.
reppac
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@alexyeoh, Thanks, OBV can help with defining entry points, when the trend is a tad sideways. However, I would like to keep this project as simple as possible and OBV is not very reactive, so helps a little but also muddies the waters a little. I'll use it in more detailed TA projects.
supestv
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@reppac, OBV not being very reactive is why I like it. The other indicators can be misleading because they react too much.