BTC has moved sideways now for some time, prices swinging up and down. A lot of choppy behavior with several tricky moves. There are two important "secret" concepts that can help you find entries in nearly every market condition. By having these skills you can often avoid having the market confuse or trap you!
Concept A): After the break of a trendline, there will be one or two legs to a new low/high. Why is that working? It just traps people who entered after the break, looking for a reversal. When a new high/low occurs they might get stopped out and think the trend continues, just when the real trend reversal begins! Additionally other traders enter when prices brake out to a new high and low, only to see prices reverse. Now they are trapped to the wrong side.
Concept B): Second entries. This is just two pushes (two legs) against the trend direction. When prices pullback in two legs and then make a second attempt to go in trend direction it is a second entry. Why do these work so well? In an uptrend people see a lower high, then a lower low. Now many think bearish and suspect a reversal, the beginning of a new downtrend. New shorts also come in, hoping to catch a new downtrend early. Of course then the uptrend continues, hitting stops of shorts. Also skilled traders go long, driving prices further up.
These two vital concepts require some experience, but you can find such entries constantly, because trends also occur inside broader ranges/channels as we can see in the Bitcoin chart. I have numbered 5 entries which can be based on these concepts + other clues: Trade 1: Short -> Concept A + bulltrap Trade 2: Long -> Concept A +B + retest support from breakout Trade 3: Short -> Concept A + pullback to EMA + trend channel test expected Trade 4: Long -> Concept A + B + successful retest of uptrend channel Trade 5: Long -> Concept A + B + pullback to EMA + retest support from breakout
What is happening right now? We have seen a strong breakout and two legs up. Prices have also overshot the broader trend channel! Now it looks like a new steeper two tiered channel is in play (with a midline). We are trading at the upper end of this channel, so maybe BTC will retrace to 9500 again, but do not look for short entries in such a strong trend!
Feel free to comment or ask questions! Or just follow me ;)
評論
⋅
I had 2 scenarios earlier (also see comments). At the circled green candle I decided that scenario 1 is in play. Another second entry ;)
good call mate. missed the 9500 short though :)
What short term target do you see on the upper end in the next hours?
Is the trend strong enough to blast through 10k or?
On the way down 10K didnt give any support...
FBlocktrader
⋅
@EspressoDopio, Thanks! It is very difficult to say what the short term target is a this point.
I have two scenarios in the next hours:
Nr.1: Another leg up with a traget of 10100. 10k is just a number, I do not give it too much credit ;)
Nr.2: Leg down to 9300, to get any left breakeven stops from the breakout longs above 9300.
EspressoDopio
⋅
@FBlocktrader, Cheers mate! Not easy getting trading profits :)
FBlocktrader
⋅
@EspressoDopio, Absolutely! If it was easy every trader would be an instant millionaire :)
The point is, trading is not so much about prediction, but more about reaction. I try to have not much of an opinion where the market is going. I try to read the market, what it is telling me and then I act accordingly. So when I can see no entry, I can speculate where it is going, but there is no trade for me.
What short term target do you see on the upper end in the next hours?
Is the trend strong enough to blast through 10k or?
On the way down 10K didnt give any support...