So the big moneyed interests screwed us, and this crash appears to have no bottom. While it's possible for 2014-2016 to happen again, if we assume the whales still want to make money probably the 180-day EMA or the long-term trend line (8.8k & 7k respectively) should provide ample support for rebound.
On the other hand, if the market keeps crashing & goes under 7k, we'll go slowly to 2k as the bitcoin bubble completely pops. Many altcoins will go to 0. Exchanges may close. We'll know that the big moneyed interests don't want to make money from bitcoin --- they probably have other enterprises that run contrary to cryptocurrencies. It'll be years before bitcoin makes news again.
One thing to look for is tether. I noticed that in the past month every time huge amounts of tether is issued there's a major crash within 12 hours. I don't know what's happening there, but let's call it an interesting coincidence.
Btw, 8.8k is also the 0.236 level since 5k.
Another cue is CBOE futures. Today their Jan 18 batch matures. If afterwards there's no bounce, since we already have a confirmed double-top we'll probably stay in bear market for some time.
The biggest problem for the market is the concentration of bitcoin wealth & the mechanisms of bitcoin mining. I want to issue a Bitfair coin for which anyone with a valid passport can claim exactly 1 BTF. If trades are all denominated in Bitfair, we'll solve the current manipulation problem.
評論
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1h to go till huge pump (my guess)
評論
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as CBOE matures, we have a considerable pump. however, there's also a cme future in a couple of days. we should still be cautious
Is there any reason to see this correction any differently than all the previous ~50% corrections other than for spreading FUD to n00bz?
DrJLT
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@RexItUp, One hypothesis involves the futures & big bitcoin holders:
they can't sell their bitcoins to get cash without futures. now they can do this: sell 3.3x futures @20k, manipulate the exchanges so that the contracts become 10k when they matures = 1.6x profit. supposed to manipulate, they sold 2x at average 1.5. now they have 4.6x to buy bitcoin at 10k
@DrJLT, I'd believe some version of that. I think almost all the price moves are driven by big hodlrs who try to hide their moves around news and other developments so its not so obvious and discouraging to retail investors. At end of day, they wanted prices to go back down so they made it happen.
neofutur
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" 1h to go till huge pump (my guess) " agreed !
leondb
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The Rektning
If Bitcoin stabilizes even at 2k, will alts go up again?