IvanLabrie

BTCUSD: Wait for the decline to end

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
The daily $BTCUSD charts shows a 20 day downtrend signal is active, and the target is as low as 1790.02 by July 29th. If we don't hit this level on time, or if we hit it too soon, it might be a terrific chance to add to longs by then. I think this aligns quite well with the timing for fundamental events. It is likely that Segwit2x is supported and Segwit locked in by that date, before the August 1st deadline is reached, thus preventing a chain split and rescuing the Bitcoin             bulls, albeit in the intermediate term -before the 3 month period ends, and the hard fork becomes mandatory.
If that is the case, I can already anticipate the hard fork busting the bubble, which I think, might see $BTCUSD hit close to $6009 at the very top, before correcting/consolidating for 2 years, a la 2013 peak. This might happen by November, which matches the Segwit2x hard fork schedule, if it comes to pass as described.

I'm long $BTC, and looking to add once this downtrend signal fails, or even if we hit the target. It might be wise to hedge your $BTC exposure in the meantime, for instance, being long $ETCBTC, or outright short $BTCUSD (I favor the former over the latter, since it is a possibility that this support holds and the short sellers 'fall short' of their expectations in time).The hedge is optional though, since ultimately, long term charts are bullish for $BTC. Sentiment being extremely negative isn't particularly exciting for shorts in $BTC either, I think this pressure on price will be short lived, so, better wait the reccomended time to add violently to longs.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.
評論: https://medium.com/@jimmysong/segwit2x-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-2mb-hard-fork-27749e1544ce
評論: Range expansion target hit, we will probably proceed to hit my target in time...I will add to longs there and then wait. I will add my comments from the KHL chat here.
評論: ah what a shame
I think overall I got it figured out
the move in $BTCUSD
a startup raised insane amounts of btc and eth
Tezos
they completed their crowdsale before this drop accelerated
so it falls even on negative sentiment due to that.
Also we have the daily 20 bar mode downtrend
target is 1790
which is the REBZ75/REBZ2 level in the 2 month timeframe
-which is the one with the biggest T@M signal in it-
so far, no RgExp bar in that timeframe got 'stopped'
the uptrend time for that timeframe aligns perfectly with the life cycle of the upgrade that might gain traction for $BTC
Segwit2x
they will probably manage to activate the uptrend with miner support, by July 29th...
which is the time the daily downtrend expires
so:
daily downtrend target is REBZ2 in 2-month tf, time for it coincides with fundamental events, sentiment is negative, startup Tezos cashing out their raised BTC and ETH
other coins are not as affected which further solidifies the idea that Tezos is the pressure on the market now
so far, no RgExp bar in that timeframe got 'stopped'
the uptrend time for that timeframe aligns perfectly with the life cycle of the upgrade that might gain traction for $BTC
Segwit2x
they will probably manage to activate the uptrend with miner support, by July 29th...
which is the time the daily downtrend expires
so:
daily downtrend target is REBZ2 in 2-month tf, time for it coincides with fundamental events, sentiment is negative, startup Tezos cashing out their raised BTC and ETH
other coins are not as affected which further solidifies the idea that Tezos is the pressure on the market now
評論: so far, no RgExp bar in that timeframe got 'stopped'
the uptrend time for that timeframe aligns perfectly with the life cycle of the upgrade that might gain traction for $BTC
Segwit2x
they will probably manage to activate the uptrend with miner support, by July 29th...
which is the time the daily downtrend expires
so:
daily downtrend target is REBZ2 in 2-month tf, time for it coincides with fundamental events, sentiment is negative, startup Tezos cashing out their raised BTC and ETH
other coins are not as affected which further solidifies the idea that Tezos is the pressure on the market now
評論: and the very obvious technical pattern and general fear of the unknown when it comes to the upgrades
truth is: I should have held on to my short until the weekly showed 10 weeks after the 10 week rally expired like I envisioned...but caught up trying to fade sentiment, when there are other forces at play (Tezos startup, they give 0 fugs about sentiment they just wanna cash out)
http://www.coindesk.com/232-million-tezos-blockchain-record-setting-token-sale/
評論: For reference, everyone hated me when I published this:
評論: The good thing is my drawdown isn't significant, despite the decline in my holdings, since my exposure isn't too big and I have been actively managing it.
Let's be patient and wait to add to longs at the target, once it's clear it bottomed. A shorter term downtrend like this offers the best entry, to join a longer term uptrend.
評論: $XBTEUR might be rehashing a situation like the Bitfinex hack crash
snapshot
評論:
snapshot
交易進行: Got rid of hedges and added to longs I now have a full position. The bottom is in. Last: 1906
評論: The lowest low is already reached possibly.
If 1790 isn't hit by the 29th or sooner, or if we move back over 2525, then the downtrend was a failure, which is bullish.
評論: One possibility: $BTCUSD chart
snapshot
評論: Excellent bottoming action in $BTCUSD
snapshot
1h is starting an uptrend here.
評論:
snapshot
Hi Ivan ;)

When you say you add longs, you mean you enter a leveraged position or simply buy some cripto?
And just to have this clear, Are you long in this whether hardfork applies or not?

I predict this post will get heavy attraction soon ..

You're a great analyst Ivan.
Yeah ik you're the Tim W.'s padawan :)
+1 回覆
@malotiin, thanks. Add to longs, however possible...same thing. I have to add cash, or use leverage at this time, so I will resort to leverage unless I can find sellers to buy with cash at a good price.
+1 回覆
Hi, Ivan. Is it better to see higher low and higher high is set? So that we can clearly see this is in a bull trend.(Or do you think it is already in a bull trend?)
+1 回覆
@HondaJr, that depends solely on your 'trading belief system'. Mine told me to buy already, which I did.
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HondaJr IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, I see, I have to set the belief system. Thanks a lot!
回覆
@HondaJr, http://bettersystemtrader.com/024-van-tharp/
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HondaJr IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, Thank you for the link! I will learn it! :)
+1 回覆
Ivan "labried" this time again ;)
+1 回覆
I still believe it will go backdown at the end of the month.
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nice analysis
+1 回覆
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