BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
210 0 3
I remain Neutral for BTC             at this time.

Yes, we just had a nice break out of what looked like an Ascending Triangle but I would have liked to have seen more Volume to confirm a build up of momentum.

We are right at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement line which looks like a significant resistance point. Lets see if we can break through this over the next few days and get more Volume this time.

If this is successful then the next target would be around 14300, which would be the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level and also near the top of the Descending Channel . In my opinion this will be the last resistance point that we need to break to start a trend reversal in BTC             . If we cant break the channel then it's possible that we fall back down the the Trendline that I've drawn from September the 15th. However, there is also a good chance that the 50% Fibonacci Retracement line would act as strong support at this point.

I will try to update this as we develop, good luck trading!
評論: We couldn't break through resistance and have dropped significantly. I am looking to see if BTC will fall down to the trendline which is looking like more of a possibility now.
評論:

Bitcoin -2.18% looks pretty weak right now, looks like the bears have gained more control again and are looking to push the price back down. Could we bounce of the 0.618 and head back up? Maybe, but I don't think it's likely so this is a key level to look for being broken. If it breaks then there's not much stopping us from heading down to 10k, which will likely be met be a bit of resistance but not for long. after that we assume that we head back down to 9k and lower until we find some resistance at the Trendline , which is also around 0.786 retracement line. Be ready to buy the dip at these levels because it could be the last time you get a chance to get in so cheap.

As per usual the media are posting articles about how the Bitcoin -2.18% Bubble has burst and we "could go as low as $1000". Remember that people were calling this a bubble at 3k... and 5k... and 7k... and 10k.. and 20k... a lot of the time these guys admit they don't understand Bitcoin -2.18% and that is one of the biggest mistakes you can do to underestimate the power of this movement right now. Crypto is here to stay and Bitcoin -2.18% has proven itself time and again that it is a unique asset class that defies traditional market movements. People will panic sell, the markets will correct but the demand hasn't left. The next time bitcoin -2.18% breaks all time highs is when we will really start to see the crypto space take off.
評論:

As expected we bounced off 10k but couldn't make it past the 0.618 resistance line. Even if we do manage to break through I still remain bearish until we go past the 0.5 Fibonacci line. More likely is we start heading back down to the previous lows of 9k which will also likely be met with a little support before either bouncing or more likely continuing down.
評論:

We could be in a Falling Wedge . I would still remain Bearish until we fully break through the the 50% and up to the top of the original descending channel. Just something to keep an eye on. I'm still looking for a correction down to the Trend line over the next few days.
評論:

Rising wedge on the hourly, could start heading back down soon.
評論:

We fell through the Rising Wedge as anticipated, this could signal for continuation to the downside but it's too early to confirm. Starting to fall through the 50 day MA on the hourly candles as well.
評論:

Still struggling to get above the 50 day MA on the 4 hour candles, which suggests that we don't have enough momentum to start a trend reversal. Still remain Bearish.
評論:

Watch for a drop past the bottom of the right shoulder to confirm this.
評論:

Head and Shoulders didn't work out exactly as I thought but it was close enough (These things work better on longer time frames). You can see that we couldn't fully break through the green Falling Wedge line. Big Volume coming in with this sell off, not much Volume coming back in on the buyers so I expect continuation to the down side.
評論:

I'm wary of the recent breakout. Relatively low Volume so I want to see more to confirm. These Symmetrical Triangle patterns can often trick traders with fake breakouts so you really want to see some follow through. A daily close above the Triangle by a significant amount would be ideal.

However, the markets don't look as Bearish as recent days. Very hard to call what direction we will go from here so ya best off to sit back and wait for more confirmations.
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