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Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised 900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). For the short-term, even though institutional traders got slightly more bearish last week, the major support is still at 11k.
2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign.
3. Market Sentiment (on-chain): Overall on-chain market sentiment is still overstretched, and a sentiment calm down is needed. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still selling in profit and remains in a bull trend. Buying the dip is simple in this type of market: wait for the price approaching seller group purchasing price à decrease in supply à increase price.
4. Margin Market Actions: The retail margin market & retail derivative market is getting overly long. We need an overly short sentiment to push us above 12k – similar to the mid 2019 6k break through below.
5. SPX correlation I don’t think SPX is going to experience a major correction anytime soon. Q2 numbers didn’t cause much of a market impact. What this means is the current price level already has the negative COVID impact priced in. The market runs on expectations rather than actuals.
Key Technicals:
1. RSI: Long-term - extremely bullish (2D, 1D) Short-term – bearish (potentially a 1D RSI MA failure) * 4hr RSI at 40 would be good accumulation point
2. Support/Resistance: Key support at 10.5k – 11k.
3. Wave developments: We are likely in wave ii of III. Details see the chart above (the bullish scenario).
Are you a bull or a bear? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
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After 3 months of indecisiveness (since 10k), it seems like institutional traders have finally made up their minds that we are in a bull trend and have further upward potential.
Solid. I was looking at the candles vs resistance line last night with a similar but with a far less educated conclusion. Thanks for affirming what my gut said but with this solid research!
Also, you now have my attention, so 'objective reached'. I look forward to more.
Phi-Deltalytics
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@DigitalLuddite, glad you enjoy it. :) Long squeeze coming. Ideally, Bitfinex could be more bullish for this to move from "getting overly long" to "overly long". But still looks like a good bet.
Phi-Deltalytics
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@Phi-Deltalytics, going exactly as planned... long/short squeezes work like clock work. Especially on smaller time frames.
MaxHodler
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"Are you a bull or a bear? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!" O:-)
Phi-Deltalytics
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@Cryptor07, Premium information! Thanks for sharing. Simple dollar cost averaging or HODL will be boring yet effective.
LuckyTrader102
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Nice chart, here is my idea. I think it should be today or tomorrow for price action