BTC - You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em

The above chart is 1 Day chart Zoomed out to include BTC             from the beginning. After reaching $1000 for the first time at the end of 2013, there was a year long bear market and it took 3 years to reach that ATH             (All time high) again. Even Andreas sold during that time.

We appear to be at the end of a 3rd wave and in need of a major correction which is quite normal for the next legup. We are headed to the first support at 8200 or so and may have bounce up to top of the channel. We are in the C wave of an ABC and it will go below 10k. But if this is Winter than that ABC will be just a part of a larger A wave.

Wave 2 Correction - 1 year (Red Channel)
Wave 3 Bull Run - 2.5 years (Blue and Pink channels)
Wave 4 correction - 6 months? (Red channel)
Summary: I like it when multiple chart patterns have a similar conclusion, both the channel pattern and Elliott waves appear to point us towards a long winter, maybe not as devastating as the initial one in 2014, but quite harsh.
Now you will see News, Bans, Regulations, Scams coming in to support our pattern. Indian govt             and banks are already squeezing out the Exchanges and major investors. There was a major discussion in parliament calling for a ban on Bitcoin             .

This is 4th Wave, the last winter before the real Crypto days start IMO             .

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.

I love these words. Helps me to be grounded and humble. Everyone is trying to beat the crypto market. My goal for 2018 is to survive, that is good enough!
Two Questions
1) Did you take out your initial investment from Crypto into the real world?
2) Did you take some crypto profits into FIAT?
More details and other charts are added in above article due to space constraints here and to continue my experiment of people using Crypto to read. This includes

I will highlight which strategies I applied now
I will add more details and visual cues to the above MACRO (multi-year) chart
I will add a super MACRO chart with monthly view
I will add different chart patterns using channels and Elliott waves
We will also see a zoomed in chart as well
We will also cover the possibility that I maybe wrong with charts to support.

Disclaimer: Please do your due diligence before investing in Cryptos. Trading is much more complicated than investing and my observations are more tailored for the latter with a mid to long term view. In the market you are right until you are wrong. Have a good strategy in place and protect your CAPITAL always.
評論: Bitcoin is struggling against the top of the triangle which is acting as a resistance. We need a 4 hour candle to close above it to confirm a short term uptrend. However 1 Day chart shows there is a buy opportunity for long term. More details -

Please find details of other fundamentals and strategies for crypto investors at
This is 4th Wave, the last winter before the real Crypto days start IMO
Doubt it'll take six months tho
Can u chart ethereum pls
please update BCH idea, thx
To F/U, Go look at Rivers most recent comment to his Prophecy post here, after pt 2, that is essentially what I was saying but trying to do so by turning a phrase. For me I do not mind being wrong and mis upside, But I am not going to give back and then lose initial cost basis in a tumblimg mrkt, and right now, all my analysis leads me to think a huge move down is coming, and an extended bear market as the political and inst'l powers reshape things in their favor, this is why comments like "it is the same Jan as last 4 years", will not hold up imo, it is NOT the same fundamentally. I am most likely going to be wrong, BTC will be at 15k by End of Feb. but better that then HODL and try to sell into a panic, BTC 8500, 5000, 3000. There has been a lot of adoption news for big names BCH, XRP, ETH (other good news)...not movimg the needle...just doesnt feel right.
imkeshav MarcKevinSwickle
@MarcKevinSwickle, I agree and my chart shows a bearish winter as well. I also talked to Rivers before he posted. Also Indian exchanges are being squeezed by banks and accounts freezed, they are running out of cover. I'm not keeping cash in exchanges now. Question is are you in 100% FIAt now? or do you hold some core coins.
@imkeshav, 83% FIAT. But 70% of my initial Bitcoin Cash in tact, I lightened up after the last run and again yesterday, and I am glad I did. I have a near zero Cost Basis in BCH on my Core, been overweighted in BCH anyway. Now I am happy no matter what happens, and, unless something fundamentally changes to BCH that affects its mission, I am able to hold thru a long winter, or worse as they have too many good people and projects, they will adapt to severe changes imo. So a return to 700 to 800 I could live with now. I am now feeling very comfortable, I am ok with a move in either direction.
imkeshav MarcKevinSwickle
@MarcKevinSwickle, excellent is the FIAT in exchange or bank?
@imkeshav, lol, NO EXCHANGES, ZERO POSITIONS IN ANY EXCHANGE, I am looking for a total bust up. These exchanges are at huge risk if hell breaks loose. Keep your coins in a wallet detached from exchanges. I am a spectator now, do not care what I may miss out on. The entire ecosystem in my opinion is going to get stress tested, some will fail, belly up, what usually starts these collapses in other asset classes in the past is news/sentiment shift, it starts to get negative and stays negative, then builds, big signal for me is the fraudulent characters start to get prosecuted (e.g. OneCoin Bitconnect) the clamps are tightening, Bankers are pissed about crypto, the powers that be are aggregating to collapse the asset class BUT keep the technology all the signs are there imo, and you can see it in the charts. You either defend now, or concede to a longer hold till things shake is coming not sure when but it is coming. If I am wrong I win anyway given my strategy and $ mgmt structure. Sitting in peace which is worth more then $$$.
imkeshav MarcKevinSwickle
@MarcKevinSwickle, Very fair assessment . We won the first battle, retreat and live to fight another day
My dad loves that song, great tittle, the market fundamentals are being telegraphed. Be un emotional and objective...the powers that be are going to dismantle all, restructure it to exist in their paradigm. Your TA is great, but the pt. here is have a plan, play with the houses money, missed opportunities are better taken then rotting in a position.
imkeshav MarcKevinSwickle
@MarcKevinSwickle, Thanks. Yeah strategy is important, so highlighted that in my article and mentioned what I'm personally following now. Cash is king!

"missed opportunities are better taken then rotting in a position. " can elaborate on this? Thanks
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