Price needs to get back into the daily cloud to continue bullish momentum. Rejection of the cloud can immediately turn sentiment bearish making this a relief rally.
There's bullish divergence on the RSI/MACD/MFI and BTC is extremely oversold so I wouldn't recommend shorting here. Higher probability of upside. Price can go either way; watch the next daily.
Do you happen to have an update on your thoughts? A nice little "higher low" around 2 am and a little bounce, but the very low volume (especially since 2 am) makes me think this is short lived and the bears will regain control.
CenkGultekin
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@chwi03, If you bought the 9800 or 10.5k dips, 12.2k-12.5k is a good range to offload. Don't recommend buying into resistance at the moment.
chwi03
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@CenkGultekin, did buy in yesterday and made something off the bounce, but sold everything into fiat last night because I was unsure of the market direction overnight. Now, I need to decide when to buy back in.
CenkGultekin
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@chwi03, I scaled orders between 9.1k-9.5k. Closed half position at 11.8k. Will close the rest around 12.3k.
chwi03
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@CenkGultekin, very helpful feedback, thank you. I haven't learned about fib yet, much it is amazing to me how often the fib levels match up with channel support & resistance lines. This is my 4 hour chart (very messy I know, not cleaned up in a couple weeks) showing what I saw as the current dominant trading channel outlined by the heavy green lines. I drew the channel multiple days ago as a guide, and yesterday we fell exactly to the bottom of the channel, and the top of the channel is about 12,800 (but I don't think we will get there on this swing). tradingview.com/chart/iNqLAS7N/
CenkGultekin
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@chwi03, The current bounce is too vertical and the diminishing volume suggests a rising wedge formation. The market makers who soaked the panic sales will likely offload between 38.2-50% as retail money buy their coins back at a higher price only to realise no continuation volume. Your channel is valid. Be patient; we will test support again.
chwi03
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@CenkGultekin, I put about 5k in during a small dip (combination of BTC, LTC, ETH), and chased the short-term up with stop losses. Wasn't sure how far to the top of that channel we'd make it, and would have been nice to capture some if we moved to $12,400-$12,600 before moving. Made a small amount, but am out now. The hourly closed with a doji last hour and the 15m appears to be making a rounded top. If I were to call it, I think we are very close to the top of this bounce right now, if we haven't already seen the top. Thanks so much for your feedback - gave me confidence in my thoughts that we are likely headed down again before up.
chwi03
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@CenkGultekin, I don't necessarily expect a reply, but I also noticed that volume was very high last hour (relatively speaking) and yet it hardly had any upward effect on the price. ** I am new to trading - about 3 months ** but have been studying hard. I had no clue how about the importance of volume until about a month ago when I started reading comments about it. I don't know if I've moved to putting TOO much weight on it, but in my mind it is critical when evaluating trend changes.
CenkGultekin
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@chwi03, It was fomo buys on Gdax. Finex barely reacted to it. We might squeeze longs soon.