SwissView
看空

Time To Short BTC

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
891 58 19
BTCUSD             today shows a pattern wich usually occurs if a trend is going to be reversed. After a parabolic (up) move a 10% intraday gain was end of the day completely reversed.

Stockmarkets history is telling us this is likel a short to medium term sell signal

The whole story behind BTCUSD             reminds being a bubble. But bubbles gang gets bigger and wider as most traders anticipate. To short the market at any "top" in most cases never works. Usually after the latest top follows a very last top and after this a very, very last top and so on. To short a market like this needs to follow strict trading rules means to implement SL orders or trailing stops. Until now there are almost no ways to protect shortpositions with BTC             call options - as i know.
評論: Bitcoin plummets $200 in 4 hours then recovers to fresh record in wild trading that serves as a cautionary tale
Bitcoin erased, then mostly recovered, about $200 overnight.
In contrast, gold futures have traded within a range of about $150 this year.
The digital currency has had other volatile swings this year.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/23/bitcoin-plummets-200-in-4-hours-then-recovers-in-wild-trading.html
評論: After the "latest" top (i shorted) followed a second and a third one. This is what allways and in any case happens, if ever traders shorting "the top". The more easy way is to let the top pass by and wait for the elliot "3" and short than the markets. Anyway: The latest three candle pattern indicates more and more that this explosive move likely to end now in a blow off. "Likely" doesn`t mean "sure".
評論: Is Bitcoin’s monster rally over for now?
https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/is-bitcoin%E2%80%99s-monster-rally-over-for-now%20-488029
評論: Investing.com – After posting record high after record high, here’s the relevant question: is (Bitcoin’s) giddy rise now set for a fall.
The crypto-currency hit yet another fresh record high of above $2,300 on Wednesday. That came after it rose 9% on Monday to trade above $2,200 for the first time, after closing last Friday at a then record high of $1,913.
Bitcoin is up some 130% since the start of the year and has risen close to 400% from a year ago as an increasing number of companies seem willing to assume exposure to the digital currency.
It has also become a safe haven currency for political risk. Ironically, the biggest group of buyers are Japanese nationals, holders of the safe-haven yen. Japanese regulators are some of the strictest regarding trading in digital currencies.
So, should you invest in Bitcoin? If you believe what you are witnessing is a stampede then prudence would suggest investors should wait for a correction before getting exposure to the asset.
“To say that the RSI is overbought is an understatement,” an Investing.com analyst says in an article for the global financial site. The RSI, or relative strength index, charts the strength or weakness of an asset based on recent closing prices.
The site’s analyst also points out that stochastics are overbought, posing the threat of a bearish cross and a double top. Stochastics measure the relationship between closing prices and price range for a set period of time.
He says it is anyone’s guess as to when to get into the market. His suggestion: when the digital currency’s price returns to its last uptrend line in late March, probably at the $1,650 level.
交易進行: Added 2/8 more shorts at 2.370.
交易進行: Added 1/8 more at 2.340.
評論: BTCUSD: Parabolic up. Smells a bit like pump and dump.
交易進行: Added 1/8 more @ 2.418. Average short price now is 2.315 USD. BTCUSD could rise up to 3.000 so that i would at least 3 times more into this rallye.
評論: Sentiment today:

78,3% BTC buy
21,7% BTC sell

Source: https://www.markets.com/de/instruments/bitcoin
評論: Bought 3/8 more @ 2.400. If ever BTC is rising further i will double this shortposition and start again with 1/8 on thursday morning, may 25th.
評論: Bitcoin soars above $2,400 to all-time high
https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-soars-above-$2,400-to-all-time-high-488064

(Reuters) - Digital currency bitcoin hit a fresh record high on Wednesday, surging above $2,400, as demand for crypto-assets soared with the creation of new tokens to raise funding for start-ups using blockchain technology.
Blockchain, the underlying technology behind bitcoin, is a financial ledger maintained by a network of computers that can track the movement of any asset without the need for a central regulator.
Bitcoin hit a record of $2,409 on the BitStamp platform and was last up 4.3 percent at $2,363. So far this year, the price of bitcoin has more than doubled.
A key reason for bitcoin's dominance in the nefarious online underworld, say technologists and cybercrime experts, is its size - the total value of all bitcoins in circulation is more than twice that of the nearest of hundreds of rivals.
Also, a big part of bitcoin's recent surge is the increase in demand for other digital currencies being sold in so-called "initial coin offerings", or ICOs. Under ICOs, blockchain start-ups sell their tokens directly to the public to raise capital without any regulatory oversight.
"Bitcoin up 100 percent in under 2 months. Shanghai down almost 10 percent same timeframe, compared to most global stocks up. Probably not a coincidence!", Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive at DoubleLine Capital tweeted on Tuesday.
Strong demand for bitcoins in Japan has also fueled the rise of the virtual currency that can be moved like money around the world quickly and anonymously without the need for a central authority.
交易進行: Avarage Price this round of shortpositions (all 8/8): 2.344

評論:
評論: BTCUSD: Parabolic Up

Sentiment: 78% long, 22% short

評論: The new round of 8 more shortpositios:

1.: 1/8 short @ 2450
評論: Parabolic up, better to see here: https://invst.ly/3-kfd
交易進行: 2.: Next 1/8 @ 2.450 USD
交易進行: 3.: 2 times 1/8 @ 2.420
評論: 4.: 4 times 1/8 @ 2.420

If ever BTC goes up more will add same later this day and on friday. Parabolic up moves on 80% longpositions usually follow one simple law: Gravity
評論: Volatility vs. Gravity: Bought seconds before the drop - lucky horsetrading.

評論: "Sold" seconds before the drop. Opened BTC shortpositions.
交易進行: BTC Sentiment:

82,2% (!) long
17,8 % short

3. round: 8/8 @ 2.602
評論: Above new 80% Longposition in any Bullmarket means that Gravity will bring any Market down if traders starting to take Profit.
評論: Avarage price 2.445 USD. sentiment up now to 83,3% long vs 16.7% short.
評論: Small traders are in the Markets:



Most trades are 0.0XYZ BTC

A litte bit it's smells still like Pump and Dump. BTC now up to 2.700. next round to short for me will be in Friday. I guess BTC now will see 3.000 first.
評論: The link above showing another trading idea was the wron one. I replay the moment as it should be below.
評論: Small Traders are in the markets right now and still no large traders as the BTC developer conference this week had made believed all Traders, that start ups going to buy BTC in high volume what small specs than would sell to.

Transactions can be watched realtime here and everyone can see that most trades are at 0,0XZY BTC:

http://fiatleak.com

A litte bit it's also smells still like Pump and Dump. BTC now up to 2.700. next round to short for me will be in Friday. I guess BTC now will see 3.000 first.
評論: 4. round: sold short 8/8 at 2.690

Scheduled next 4 rounds, directely 8/8:

5.: @ 2.800
6.: @ 2.900
7.: @ 3.000
8.: @ 3.000
評論: The source i follow is showing now 86% of all trades are on the buy side (cfd).
評論: Global chat platform Kik to launch digital currency
https://www.investing.com/news/technology-news/global-chat-platform-kik-to-launch-digital-currency-488465
評論: Bitcoin may have more than doubled this year, but rival Ethereum is up 2,000 percent. Here's why
The price of bitcoin has more than doubled in 2017.
But rival cryptocurrency ether, which runs on the ethereum blockchain, is up over 2,300 percent this year.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/24/ethereum-price-bitcoin-rally.html
評論: BTCUSD parabolic up. Up to 86% of all trades are "buy".

評論: Bought round "5" below schedule right now at 2.700 (8/8).
評論: Bought round "6" ahead of schedule and below schedule price at 2.700 (8/8).
評論: BTCUSD: Parabolic "up":

評論: Bought round "7" at 2730. If BTCUSD might go to 3.000 over night i will continue to sell into this rally by new shortpositions. What everyone can see is that volatility on the up side is extremely high - but compared to BTC history it's just 20%. Thisfore i suppose that the first move down might come fast and quick. On the long view BTC very easy can go up to 10.000 US-Dollar so the risk is rising to short BTC to low. I guess that any corrective move might be triggered by panic selling but might not last to long. This is the idea - this are no facts.

評論: Momentum stalls - what doesn't means anything for BTC. Added one round more ahead of schedule and below scheduled short levels.

Added round "7" - sold BTC. Each positions is opened as "short". I did not traded a lot of shortpositions for a while so until now each trading action more or less was a "buy". I apologize for now using the right terms.

評論: Added round "8" @ 2.700, again ahead of schedule and below scheduled level. Momentum stalls. As discussed before there are only small traders active buying smal peaces of BTC by a 86% buy rate. Usually markets like this going down like landslides if ever buying drys out.
BTC is a special market and has own rules. Whatever might be valid for each other market doesn't need to work on BTC necessarily. In this case i am as a senior trader will be wrong, need to cover this shorts and realize my losses. I guess BTC could have more room still until 3k but not sure. Thisfore i added more shorts now and will add more if we might could the 3k. Depending on this ultra high buy rates of 86% vs. 14% shorts i would suppose that BTC could fall to 1.650 or 1.150. After this time will tell if BTC might go to Zero or to 10.000. Both is possible and i guess everybody familiar with btc knows it.
評論: If ever markets like this turn arround than it will come quickly. This is the one exception if ever i short a market before any top. If momentum is up so high like seen since Monday usually it will be much higher if ever the markets gets reversed.

評論: This was a busy day. End of the day i bought totally 9 times instead of 8 as scheduled. The average price of all shortpositions now is 1.621 USD.
評論: Comment: Bitcoin could see a 47% correction, but some say it's going to $6,000
Bitcoin rallied to a fresh record high of over $2,700 on Thursday.
One analyst said that the cryptocurrency is close to a key level of $2,800 which could signal a correction. The analyst told CNBC that the correction could see bitcoin fall as far as $1,470, marking a 46.5 percent decline.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/25/bitcoin-price-correction-record-high.html
評論: Bitcoin plunges more than $300, goes negative after earlier hitting all-time high

Bitcoin hit a record $2,791.70 before erasing the day's gains.
At Thursday's record, bitcoin had gained more than 45 percent in a week and more than 180 percent this year.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/25/bitcoin-surges-10-percent-to-all-time-high-above-2700.html
評論: Looks like possible head and shoulders pattern.

評論:
評論: Even BTC is showing an impressive intraday reversal bets are unchanged: 80% long, 20% short (cfd´s).
評論:
評論: stopp sell order activated.
交易結束:目標達成
評論: BTC short closed at 2.460 or net gain of 200 Points. Momentum to the upside is still there. BTC needs to much attention to trade it.
交易進行: Short 1 position BTC @ 2.490 again.

For me looks like we hat a retest of the former highs and maybe the downmove might start after this retest might be confirmed as "failed". BTC trading is much more challeging than stockmarket trading. There is no quite time, no off time.
I will continue trading with a very small position only and maybe ad or minus more intraday but will not report or comment on it.
評論: BTC after failed re-test (until now) of yesterdays record highs:

交易進行: Wild ride: Still short BTC

交易進行: Crash. Still short BTC, net gain 700 USD each BTC.

交易進行: BTC short almost from the top. Short trade still active. Looks like there is another sharp drop to come sunday night.

評論: Some remarks:

Reading the comments above there are a lot of mistakes. I need to apologize again. BTC is a 24 hours trade, 7 days a week.

- I worte above that i need to apologize for --- "not" ---- using the right terms. Shortpositions never gets "bought". Its a sell at the opening and a buy if the trade is closed. For allmost 12 month i am just on the "buy side". I buy to open a trade since almost one year - now i sell to open a trade.

- The average short position is 2.621 and not like written above 1.621.
交易進行: Volatility remains high. BTC needs a lot of attention to hedge shortpositions with BTC buying in up moves.
評論: Chart is selfexplaining. If the latest upmove is fading next down move to come sunday night. M.o.b.

評論: Comment: BTC - real trades:

88% long
12% short

Source: https://www.markets.com/instruments/bitcoin
評論:
評論: BTC - real trades:

88% long
12% short

Source: https://www.markets.com/instruments/bitcoin
交易進行: Bias: unch, 88% long, 12% short.

評論: Comment: Bitcoin faces growing competition from Ethereum
https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-faces-growing-competition-from-ethereum-490743
評論: ETH rocket straight up: At a certain time there is not enough cash left to pump up several bubbles same time.
評論: Bitcoin, Ethereum plunge as much as 25% as bull party ends
https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin,-ethereum-plunge-by-as-much-as-25-as-bull-party-ends-495732
評論: BTC shorted at the tops (Read comments below).

評論: Rumors ...

Is The People's Bank Of China Manipulating The Bitcoin Price?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-15/peoples-bank-china-manipulating-bitcoin-price
評論: Bitcoin, Ether Lead Digital Currency Slide From Highs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-26/bitcoin-ether-lead-slide-as-digital-currencies-drop-from-highs
評論: BTCUSD: Bubble to burst short term likely. Still short BTC @2.400.

評論: Ethereum crashes 25%, other cryptocurrencies also sharply lower
https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/ethereum-crashes-25,-other-cryptocurrencies-also-sharply-lower-504128
評論: Sell signal: BTC bubble is going to burst further

評論: BTC: Sell off

評論: Ethereum briefly crashes 20% to 7-week low amid worries about rival bitcoin's future
Ethereum leaped several thousand percent this year to a record in June.
Prices have been falling steadily since then.
Bitcoin prices also fell Sunday amid concerns about a potential split in a few weeks.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/16/ethereum-briefly-crashes-20-percent-to-7-week-low-amid-worries-about-rival-bitcoins-future.html
評論: Time to resume to short BTCUSD:

評論: Comment: Cryptos - Bitcoin sheds $500 as Cryptocurrency Exodus Intensifies

Quote:

"BTCChina, one of China's largest bitcoin trading platforms, announced that it would cease offering trading services on September 30, citing statements issued earlier this month by the People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies in the country.
BTCChina will stop registration of new users from Thursday, it said on its official microblog.
"We will stop all trades on the digital trading platform starting Sept. 30," it said. Its co-founder, Bobby Lee, told Reuters the move would not affect trading on the BTCC international exchange, however.
The sharp sell-off in Bitcoin follows growing fears of blanket ban on bitcoin exchanges across China after a statement from The National Internet Finance Association of China (NIFA) Wednesday claimed that “financial and social risks cannot be ignored.”
The National Internet Finance Association of China, a self-regulatory agency, established by the People’s Bank of China, said that Bitcoin “is becoming a tool for money laundering” and warned that virtual currency trading platforms in China are not legally established.
Chinese regulators, however, are yet to confirmed any plan to shut down local exchanges but the statement from NIFA supports recent media reports warning that the decision had already been made."
https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/crypto--bitcoin-sheds-500-as-cryptocurrency-exodus-intensifies-529041
time to short btc again? https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/are-fraudulent-tethers-being-used-for-margin-lending-on-bitfinex-5de9dd80f330
回覆
@fosis, left BTC trading by trailing stop. Right now i am focused on Stockmarkets change from up move to consolidation - and this needs a lot of time. BTC need a lot of time as we discussed before. I wish i had more time to cover BTC right now.
回覆
Thanks for clarification about trade, sometimes it was confusing reading your comments :)
I'm looking to open short position aswell.
Do you think bulls will hold last low or we will go lower?
In my opinion, the price will hit EMA 50 level, than BTC will bounce to retest last high or create new ath.
回覆
@fosis, very sorry about that. I read comments above and i agree its confusing. About BTC: I am uncertain about whats next.

Tonight i decided to fully hedge the shorts by 120% - i bought more BTC than i need to hedge. BTC is right now a 24 hours trade. If ever you need some hours of sleep you just need to hedge everything. You can wake up and BTC is 500 USD higher or lower.
回覆
SwissView SwissView
I guess we could see tonight more about the short term direction. I guess that if ever BT drops again to where it starts last monday than this sell signal is valid and we could see a sharp drop nxt days. I just follow the market and i think its a good idea not to focus on predictions maybe.
回覆
@fosis,

Looks like your idea might be right. Added BTC, now net long for some minutes or hours. It's never boring to trade BTC - but it needs full attention 24 hours a day. I am going to stop trading on tuesday night, unfortunately.

回覆
fosis SwissView
@SwissView, I forgot to mention on which timeframe I look at, so EMA 50 on daily chart.

You are right, that BTC trading is very exhausting espiecially during volatile days, but if you earn money for your work, than everything is fine :D
回覆
@fosis, i.c.

Right now "the DAX" is on holiday and going nowhere. Same time the DAX is going a few points up or down BTC moves a few hundert USD. At times it's o.k. But i will stop next days probably. All trades until now runs good but luck never lasts forever. I guess the best time to leave is as long trades are successful.
回覆
@fosis, neutral now, preparing to change to net short.
回覆
fosis SwissView
@SwissView, I need 1-2 more candles on 4h chart, to be 100% sure.
回覆
ZH 繁體中文
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
AR العربية
首頁 股票篩選器 外匯信號搜索器 加密貨幣信號搜索器 全球財經日曆 如何運作 圖表功能 網站規則 版主 網站 & 經紀商解決方案 小工具 圖表庫 功能請求 部落格 & 新聞 常見問題 幫助 & 維基 推特
個人檔案 個人檔案設定 帳戶和帳單 我的事件處理號碼 聯絡客服 發表的想法 粉絲 正在關注 私人訊息 在線聊天 登出