Key Points
Every cryptocurrency investor and trader must carefully consider the underlying facts to their investment. There are major red flags from a fundamental and technical point of view. Therefore crypto traders and investors should invest only as much as they are ready to loose in case of a total wipeout. Moreover everyone should critically question „expert“ opinions suggesting to buy cryptocurrencies.
Right now it is still a great opportunity to take profits or even cut profits. It is highly likely that the situation will change into a total wipeout in the near future. It is totally ok to invest in cryptos. However, be prepared for a factory reset and do not take excessive risks leading to potentially painful consequences.
Fundamentals
Cryptocurrencies are in a classic bubble with all ingredients it takes right now. There is almost no fundamental value in cryptocurrencies. There are no dividends, interest, or anything similar benefits for bitcoin holders. The only fundamental benefit is to simplify payment processes for illegal activities.
Wikipedia has counted something around 1,400 altcoins around year end 2017. The mechanics of many of these instruments are exactly the same that are found in already well known penny stock scams: The issuer is the only person long (he/she can sell) the instrument and satisfy demand from buyers. It is quite obvious that a short squeeze must occur… The bucket will be pulled further and further away from the buyer resulting into price gains. Moreover prominent supporters are hired to „consult“ these ICO’s in return for coins. These guys use their public standing to animate the broad public to invest into their supported projects. They provide short stories on how great their promoted product is. This is nothing else than a ponzi system. It breaks down quickly as confidence erodes. It is crucial to question the statements of these experts: Why is the ICO great? What’s its use in the next 2 years? Is it going to create positive changes for enough people in society? What are the underlying facts to the claims?
Cryptocurrencies have an excessively unbeatable value. They are not suited at all as a mean of payment. Currency is an awfully displaced name for these instruments. We are dealing here with the purest form of speculation that the broad public encounters most likely just once in their lifetime.
Do not let this be a catastrophic experience! Take protective measures as long as you can. Risk only as much as you can painlessly afford if you get totally wiped out.
Technicals
The short term Bitcoin elliott wave structure counts best as a 3-wave correction. It roots at the Dec. 17th high and corrects to the downside. This pattern here implies on a standalone basis a high odds case for followthrough to the upside into another all-time high.
However, a bird’s eye view over the entire cryptospace tells a very different story. Further upside seems for most of the major altcoins unlikely. The technical picture given here and on our website on our January 2018 update is on the way of getting confirmation.
Moreover, the Bitcoin’s rebound off the February 2018 low counts as a 3-wave move to the upside as we publish this. We therefore assign the highest odds to a leading diagonal pattern for the Bitcoin. The target is below $4,000 for this structure.
Our short term case of diving below 4k gets severely weakend if 11,750 gets crossed to the upside. This price action makes a new higher high most likely. We do not mind being wrong and see higher highs. However, they'll have the same implications eventually. The bubble will pop and it is a good idea to be prepared!
Every cryptocurrency investor and trader must carefully consider the underlying facts to their investment. There are major red flags from a fundamental and technical point of view. Therefore crypto traders and investors should invest only as much as they are ready to loose in case of a total wipeout. Moreover everyone should critically question „expert“ opinions suggesting to buy cryptocurrencies.
Right now it is still a great opportunity to take profits or even cut profits. It is highly likely that the situation will change into a total wipeout in the near future. It is totally ok to invest in cryptos. However, be prepared for a factory reset and do not take excessive risks leading to potentially painful consequences.
Fundamentals
Cryptocurrencies are in a classic bubble with all ingredients it takes right now. There is almost no fundamental value in cryptocurrencies. There are no dividends, interest, or anything similar benefits for bitcoin holders. The only fundamental benefit is to simplify payment processes for illegal activities.
Wikipedia has counted something around 1,400 altcoins around year end 2017. The mechanics of many of these instruments are exactly the same that are found in already well known penny stock scams: The issuer is the only person long (he/she can sell) the instrument and satisfy demand from buyers. It is quite obvious that a short squeeze must occur… The bucket will be pulled further and further away from the buyer resulting into price gains. Moreover prominent supporters are hired to „consult“ these ICO’s in return for coins. These guys use their public standing to animate the broad public to invest into their supported projects. They provide short stories on how great their promoted product is. This is nothing else than a ponzi system. It breaks down quickly as confidence erodes. It is crucial to question the statements of these experts: Why is the ICO great? What’s its use in the next 2 years? Is it going to create positive changes for enough people in society? What are the underlying facts to the claims?
Cryptocurrencies have an excessively unbeatable value. They are not suited at all as a mean of payment. Currency is an awfully displaced name for these instruments. We are dealing here with the purest form of speculation that the broad public encounters most likely just once in their lifetime.
Do not let this be a catastrophic experience! Take protective measures as long as you can. Risk only as much as you can painlessly afford if you get totally wiped out.
Technicals
The short term Bitcoin elliott wave structure counts best as a 3-wave correction. It roots at the Dec. 17th high and corrects to the downside. This pattern here implies on a standalone basis a high odds case for followthrough to the upside into another all-time high.
However, a bird’s eye view over the entire cryptospace tells a very different story. Further upside seems for most of the major altcoins unlikely. The technical picture given here and on our website on our January 2018 update is on the way of getting confirmation.
Moreover, the Bitcoin’s rebound off the February 2018 low counts as a 3-wave move to the upside as we publish this. We therefore assign the highest odds to a leading diagonal pattern for the Bitcoin. The target is below $4,000 for this structure.
Our short term case of diving below 4k gets severely weakend if 11,750 gets crossed to the upside. This price action makes a new higher high most likely. We do not mind being wrong and see higher highs. However, they'll have the same implications eventually. The bubble will pop and it is a good idea to be prepared!
評論:
shift s/l down to 9,300 on this trade
評論:
shift s/l up to 9890
交易結束：目標達成:
Closing all short crypto positions. This gets ambiguous here. It may bounce sharply.
評論:
+25.5%