BTC has been in a downtrend that's respected the "Log downtrend line" for the last few months. I believe we are in a Wave 4 ABCDE retracement of a super cycle.
On the weekly, we have just established a higher low and are looking for a lower high still. This lower high will happen at a retest of the "Log downtrend line", where it will temporarily fail and reject.
The rejection will establish a lower high, at which a point a sell off will occur. The sell off will be with declining volume. This will be an early signal for the end of the months long downtrend. Savvy investors will see the declining selling volume and the completed pattern we have been tracking for the last few weeks. Large investors will front run Wave E of the ABCDE in preparation for the large bull run.
Due to the front running, Wave E will likely be truncated, either at the 0.618, 0.786, or 0.887 levels. Monthly, weekly, daily Stoch RSI will be reset. We will see a daily bull div, and the bull run will start.
評論
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After spending more time with the chart today I came up with a count that is supported by the evidence that shows this Wave 4 ABCDE is still a strong possibility.
It's important to note, I did not try to force this into existence. The chart gives me a number of puzzle pieces and it's my job to make sense of it all without forcing pieces where they do not go.
Many people, including myself, thought we were looking at a 5 wave impulse where the minor WXY bump was Wave 1, 2. I always had a problem with this count for two reasons:
1) I did not count 5 waves in this structure, it's more of a WXY, two 3 waves connected.
2) On LTC, the same chart shows that Wave 2 breaks the Wave 1 low - albeit by a few cents. Still this is an invalidation of EW rules. LTC and BTC movements mirror each other, I would expect confluence regarding move types (motive versus corrective).
So with these things in mind, I labeled the major structures as I counted them and came up with this larger WXY. It fits perfectly with our Wave 4 ABCDE and the fibs support it.
It still bothers me that we broke the triangle by a bit. We'll have to see how this plays out. Assuming this is indeed still a Wave 4 ABCDE, then we should see a strong retracement to the targets I have on the original chart. Remember, Wave E is a wave failure and does not have to make it to the bottom of the triangle.
Given that we've broken out of the triangle and that LTC made a 1.618 extension it is possible that we may be seeing a set of impulse waves off the lows. I still do not like the count of my AB as a 5 wave impulse, but it is certainly possible that this is the case.
targetsir
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@targetsir, I no longer believe this to be the case. Please see my update to the original post above.
targetsir
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As predicted, we moved off the low and hit both targets. We are now reversing slightly above the log downtrend line. If price holds above the log downtrend line after a retest, this chart will be invalidated. We put in decent price action around the 0.382 fib level, which coincides with the top of the log downtrend line. I would not be surprised if we bounce from that region. This would mean my downside targets would be off the table.
If however, the log downtrend line does not hold and we see a strong reaction downward, the around 0.618,$7500 level is a good candidate for a bounce, and after that the remainder of my levels.
The move yesterday showed the market is fairly bullish.
Casey7485
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hi, nice chart, but may I ask what wave structure could this wave D be? I mean 3 waves structure or 5? 5-3-5?
targetsir
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@Casey7485, EW calls for it to be a 3 wave either ABC or WXY, so it could be 3-3-5 / 5-3-5 or 3-3-3. What's going to be difficult is the convolution of different degrees.
Currently, I think we have a contender for a leading diagonal 5 wave, so it would suggest ABC or 5-3-5, but we'll have to wait for more data to confirm.
targetsir
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@Casey7485, sorry not a leading diagonal just an ugly 5 wave impulse with a very long 3rd.
targetsir
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@targetsir, potentially, but we need more data to confirm
Casey7485
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@targetsir, thank you so much! but now it seems like a triangle consolidation
targetsir
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@Casey7485, yes, the triangle could qualify as the X consolidation wave.In which case, the upper target may still be reachable.
targetsir
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@Casey7485, now that the triangle has played out, it looks mor elike a WAve 4 triangle in an ABC. So we're still looking for a larger pullback to create the X.