Based on previous pattern, fundamentals, and TA. This is my best guess for the scenario I see unfolding in the next weeks.
We come off the top of this wave and are clearly in a sell-off, we will stay in this triangle and hit 25MA resistance (yellow) then bounce off 50MA support.
Then we do the expected run upwards to the triangle top and since everyone expect it to break upward we will see a sudden drop towards the 100MA for some real fear. 24-25K will scare most weak hands out of bitcoin before the market maker pushes this thing to it's next station, which could be around 70-80K, then rinse and repeat and go parabolic to 140-150K for a new top.
I am currently not holding bitcoin, I would not advice an entry at 24K but rather see if this pattern plays out, then wait for the confirmed uptrend from the drop, and enter when stochastics weekly is telling us we are bottomed out and on our way back up (yes you miss the money at the bottom of the well, but it's a lot less risky trade)
btw this is me talking to myself, I am not giving anyone here trading advice, this is how I trade, not how I think you should be trading.
trade safe!
評論
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ok so I was a little off with the timing and I did not predict the fake breakout, other than that this is still pretty much going as I predicted, let's see if the last part holds up :-)
YELLOW LINE IS CORRECTION ON MY PREVIOUS PREDICTION - we are ahead of schedule
Hey man nice analisys, I as well sold everything today after the 4h ichi turned bearish. Only thing is I see too many people calling for 24-25k so it probably won’t happen. Im starting to think we’ll gonna see some serious fear in the 18-22k area
STATICERROR
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@fabionebiondo, yeah you are spot on, this thesis similar is now too widely expected, so probably it will not happen like this, we saw a fakeout to the upside, we should see a real shakeup soon, if not we can always jump on the train when it's going up further and breaking out of consolidation in a clear move