Cycles occur in every aspect of our lives. In financial markets, the study of Cycles is a proven strategy. Cycles in the financial markets track the natural ebb and flow of human emotions and influence. So it naturally stands to reason that repetitive Cycles in the price of Bitcoin would develop, considering it's probably one of the most diverse and naturally traded markets out there.
In 2017 at least, Bitcoin has been showing us very consistent and clear 60 day Cycles. The sample size is relatively small, but the consistency is impressive. The chart suggests the next Cycle Low to occur around Jan 12th, and if the parabola has broken here, then a natural 50% bull market retracement would be the type of "blood in the street" event that a bull market would throw us at this point in its evolution.
Stay sharp and nimble, remember that markets never move in one direction all of the time. Even a retracement back to the $5,700 preserves the major bull market trend and allows for sentiment to be reset.
@Rocket88, Too many new traders in this space who have not experienced major drawdowns before. This bull market need to teach them a lesson. The big boys, institutional money will be there to pickup their bitcoin as they puke it all out.
m9shn
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@BobLoukas, thats what happened over the summer and in september, no?
m9shn
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instiutionals entered in april, as i reckon
BobLoukas
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@Rocket88, Yes, with each Cycle Low you have a flush on sentiment, a puking of the asset. But each wave higher adds more and more speculative money, with past 60 day cycle adding an unprecedented amount of noob's to the space. All relative I guess.
m9shn
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@BobLoukas, in my humble opinion there are many other institutionals who are ready to pay 7-8k for it, knowing that the price will reach 15-16k+ within a matter of year. to gain advantage over other investors who will try to make others puke and sell low. cap is still a relatively small chunk of world's economy. but hype is huge, giving NASDAQ and CME news.
BobLoukas
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@Rocket88, Yes agree. But you're using fundamentals analysis (with healthy dose of bias) to make a short term trading and/or price prediction. Also, I'm not saying it has to be this way, only that markets do move in Cycles. 60 trading days is hardly an eternity too, markets need time to digest new participants and weak hands. Remember, it's up 10-fold in less than a year.
m9shn
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@BobLoukas, i would have loved to see bitcoin under 5-6k, even though i have just bought back at 9100. i'd sell my flat, buy some btc at that price and travel around the world)
thank you for the analysis and the best of luck in trading!
m9shn
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@BobLoukas, but gotta admit, your reasoning and analysis does have sense, however, market is changing constantly, no?