Since the bounce of Bitcoin from the 79xx low i kept saying the rally has been quite weak, even though my previous analysis said we should go towards 8600/8800. Bitcoin has rallied to almost 8600, but i think it has already come to an end. I had some scenario's in my head, thinking we could even go towards the 9000/9400, but i give the red line the biggest chance now. These lines a drew are purely idea's of what could happen, my earlier followers know my style. Sometimes it works out great and sometimes it goes completely differently. But it's about having a plan, based on certain signals. As long as i don't see other signals i try to trade according to a plan so emotions don't get the best of me if i trade without a plan and need to make to many impulsive/emotional decisions .
In this chart you can see different fractals. The first is that big wedge, even though the rally from the low was different, it still has some similarities. This fractal is the blue line. The other fractal is the red line, with the green, yellow and blue circles. If it follows this fractal, than we will probably start to drop from here and make a new low. That purple wedge is something i think it could follow. I can't say how the wedge will find it's support line, but this is my best guess.
Many Alts have made very weak rally from the low's so this could mean the market is still not ready to make a big move up again, this confirms my red fractal. A break of 8700/8800 will probably invalidate the red fractal and would put the blue one in play.
Don't forget to like if you like what i am doing here :)
Previous analysis
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Still inside the bull flag, so far it looks like it could still rally towards 8750. A drop below 8480 could be a first small sign of at least a temp high. In summary, still no signs of weakness!
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There is chance the high is set already, a drop below that green area would confirm that (probably). So long it's still inside that channel, now probably going to the support line. So it will be important to see what happens next.
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And another day has passed while moving in this small range. Not much to add, 2 options now, we drop here and make a small H&S where 8350 and 8200 are good support levels. Or we continue the rally from here. I though it would drop already, but bulls are not giving up. To give you an image, i thought it was 75/25 for a drop to at least those support levels, now it's more 60/40.
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This picture you can see, how volatility has turned to crap in crypto. This is almost certain because more big money has entered the market instead of retail money. Volumes and volatility have dropped because it makes their job much MUCH easier to control the market. During Dec, Jan and Feb, volume was much higher so they were not able to control the market like they want to. This picture will most probably get even worse every month. On one hand it's good, because we don't need to stay behind the screens all day long. But it makes it less attractive to trade compared to other markets, like the stock, forex and commodities
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Some action finally, so it dropped and is at the support level now of that possible inverse H&S. If it's still has value, we should see a bounce up now. I think it will probably follow the red line
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Looks like the 8350 suppprt will crack, next support is around 8150/8200
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So far the market is following my red line, broke the first support at 8400 and that rising channel as well. So a drop to around 8200 will probably happen next
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Could see a move like this as well by the way, the blue line
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LOL :)
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So far it looks like a small bear flag, not the best but still. Even though the neckline of that inverse H&S got broken, it's still not really confirmed since we are above it again. But it has very little value to me now. Still following the blue line :) and i think it will keep doing that. Only a rally above 8500 could change things again
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Based on the price action i have been seeing the past few hours, it's almost certain we make another drop. I saw the exact same thing a few weeks ago, i predicted 3 small waves in a row (200/400 points). 2 of them were waves down and 1 was up, all in the same day or 2 max. Not 100% sure it's the same, but i think so
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Still following the blue line and it seems what i said in the previous update, was right again!
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I am calling it a day guys, it's 4.15 at night now, good luck and don't forget to like :) Think this post deserves a few more likes :)
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I think there is a big chance we will see a small bounce around 8200/8150. So i expect another small wave down inside this channel
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Low for now seems to be set, no big bounce yet, but could still come of course. First step would be a break of that channel!
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The bounce up is not really convincing, bulls need to step up otherwise we keep on dropping if we stay inside that Chanel
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Channel
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I just scrolled through many of the bigger Alts coins, and i have bad news guys. Almost each one has a very bearish outlook for the coming weeks. Only thing that can rescue them is a rally of Bitcoin to 8500/9000. Can't say what will happen in the coming days, could still see a small move up MAYBE, but unless Bitcoin makes a move i am afraid everything will return to crap again. When that happens, that scary theory i talked about weeks ago will be confirmed.
For now, Bitcoin was not convincing like a said earlier and we have dropped to the low again, suggesting we make another drop. There is still a chance to form a small double bottom here but it's not looking good. Bulls need to push it out of that channel!
I want to thank you guys for the likes, 1000+ :) Thank you
For the ones who have sent me PM messages for the possible service, the amount of messages have scared me almost, i knew it would be allot but not this :). Thanks for the trust you give me guys. I will try to answer them later today or tomorrow.
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The theory is not about a big crash guys, just to be clear. Could be but it's not about that. It's about how sick, just extremely sick this crypto trading world is. That's why i kept on saying, i hope it's not true and that i am wrong. So don't get scared that we will make a massive crash because i MAYBE think we will. I have not said that and i could easily be wrong. Even though i have very good in predicting the moves the past half year, i am also wrong sometimes. So please don't follow me blindly. And again i have not talked about a crash!
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I took a few hours off, see the market dropped even more. During bulls runs the market seems unstoppable and during drops the market seems almost dead. Mostly controlled moves the rallies and the drops. We don't see those beautiful fights that we saw a few months ago between bulls and bears. Its around a support level now, at the previous low. From the looks of it, think it will break and make another drop.
I will make a new analysis now to see whats going on at the moment
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So far it's still following that red line, since we did not make a small bounce it looks like we will drop straight to that support level of what i thought could turn into a wedge 2 days ago. Still no reason to change that plan
I'd simply like to say thanks, David, for all the effort and expertise you pour into your work here. Some people troll, some treat you like a personal advisor; but I'd say for the majority of us - You have brought such context and clarity to the emerging patterns, flags, fractals, etc. that we all read about and research but often fail to comprehend in real-life application. Emotion, irrationality, panic... Those aren't things easily taught to overcome. Regardless, by learning from your work and applying it to our existing knowledge of TA (little knowledge, if that), you've given us greater confidence and resolve in our respective approaches to wrestling this twisted market. Through this knowledge and its application, I personally trade with a bit less fear and a greater sense of direction - lending much aid in the fight against the nature of panic and its accompianing poor decisions. Your work has made more competent traders of us all; and we (or I, as perhaps I shouldn't speak for anyone else now that I think of it) are sincerely indebted to your efforts. Thank you, wholeheartedly, for all that you do here.
DrViking
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@Yakovlev22, this
botje11
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@Yakovlev22, Thank you very much for the kind words, really appreciate that :) Yes i have noticed than many of my early followers have started to use my techniques and have developed them selves as well. Still it's all about experience but it's a very good start/foundation to work with. Your welcome :)
TheAbba
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The best part of David is that I don't have to read a bunch of silliness about being the king, the best, the blah blah blah...he just delivers!
@Crypto_Mania_Guru, LOL...yeah. Don't get me wrong, love lots of perspectives...but that takes away from the value. Let your analysis do the talking. IOWs, act like you know you are the BMF! ;)
But, fair to note, I still appreciate all the ideas from everyone who spends their time!!! Nothing but love from Miami!!!!
One thing I have finally started to learn after reading it in your posts 200,000 times is to make a plan and stick to it (ignore emotion). Emotion is the inly thing that kills me in this game. My calls are right 80% of the time and thier are a few people that follow my calls and have made a lot of money. Unfortunetly i have not because I make the calls and then let emotion screw it all up in the moment. So its still hard but im focusing in no emotion by writing down my plan for any coin i buy and the reasons. This way i can read them to counter the emotion when things go the wrong way for a moment. Also fighting it by not watching the prices nearly as much. If im not watching i cant panic. Anyhow just wanted to throw this out thier in case it helps anyone else. ::cheers::
botje11
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@DaleBrosius, Good to be honoust about your flaws, trust me, every trader has the exact same problem. One more than the other of course, that's what the market does to a trader, that's why certain squeezes happen (up and down). Whales know you can never forget them and that they always stay in the back of your mind during each trade you make