The main purpose of this TA is to make a confession and to solemnly apologise to my followers for one last time (because some of you might feel annoyed). I apologise because I wasn’t capable of seeing the April short squeeze although there were many signs/indicators to show that short squeeze was coming. However, I am not apologising to those who blindly follow my advice without having a strategy in place, especially without an exit strategy and a proper risk/reward ratio in place. I knew someone who even hold his/her 7k short positions, with leverage, all the way from 7k to 10k. Guys, please don’t do that. You should always identify the support/resistance levels, a good risk/reward ratio, and an entry/exit point before you place any trade.
This confession should have been made a month ago however there were many reasons that stopped me doing it at the time. One of the main reasons is now vanished so I think I should do it now.
I am sure you still remember back in March I had this bold prediction of $4436 between 12-14th April. I have listed out most of the reasons and the logic behind it however there was one thing that I didn’t mention – Fib Time Zone.
As you can see from the chart above, at each fib time line, the price reversed of the current trend either on the day or the day after it. Consequently, I bought a stack of BTC at $6900 right after the 5th Feb candle closed. That was a success with 40% profits which made me believe that I would be able to predict the price at a certain date.
I don’t know if you also remember that on the 18th March I made two perfect calls on finding the bottom of XRP & ETC which no one else did on TV? If you refer back to the above chart again, you can see the 18th March is right on the fib time line. So, all I had to do was to find the perfect price level to buy XRP & ETC. That was also a success with 25% profits.
With these two success I thought, right, 13th April must be the date of the trend reversal. With the huge bearish sentiment the price should continue to go down to 4k and then reverse on the 13th. But, guess what happened? Short squeeze happened. I lost many good friends on TV. People told me to f*** off. I lost many followers. That was a cruel lesson but that’s just part of life.
After the short squeeze, I pushed myself to go back to do more studies and learn as much as I can. From some of the theories, I realised – “Oh, if I have known the theory/pattern, I could have made a better call”. Now, it’s too late to go back in time and help my followers to make money. However, what I can do the least, is to show you how learning can help you make money. Certainly, not just follow someone else’s ideas, but to learn, educate, and invest in yourself so you can become the better you.
The idea is simple, but super powerful. If you combine the first bat pattern with the first set of fib time zone (in blue), you would have placed your buy position @ $7160.75 and sold your position @ $11100 (2.17 r/r ratio), with SL below $5555. Then, when the price stopped at $6400 forming the second bat pattern, you could have placed long positions and aimed for $9725 and opened short positions at $9725 because it has formed the 2618 pattern. Furthermore, if a triangle forms at a relatively low price level (the triangle before the short squeeze), the risk/reward ratio is better with buying.
Can you see the power of learning now? Yes, you can say I am not a professional trader. Yes, I still have a lot to learn. But, I LEARN!!! This is what my original intention is to post my TA on TV – to encourage people to learn because I believe most of the people on TV is not a professional trader.
Taiwan Bear
評論
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Another thing that I want to say is that when the short squeeze happened in April, how many people spammed my posts or PM’d me and told me to f*** off? Where are they now? I saw one of them are now going to every top trader’s post and telling everyone to sell. This is a disgusting act. When the price rises, they tell others to buy and when the price drops they spread FUD (things like, Cryptos are going to die because there is no real use). Well, if you believe Cryptos are going to die, why did you blame me for making you miss the ride? Take some responsibility and stop blaming others for making you missed the ride. If you want to contribute yourself to the community, do something meaningful, not meaning”less”.
I think the apology is unnecesary because you`re just sharing ideas and some hints on YOUR trading. No one has to do what you do step by step... To add something on the whole learning process... It is important to read, watch videos, etc... But another thing that is helping me is when I get to a conclusion based on my own TA, I try to look ideas on the chart from other authors that are proposing the opposite Ex: (if I say long, I check the ideas that says it will go short)
Man, I just love u <3 Your posts are touching. And fuck those who say fuck off.
Fib time zone is my next toy. Playing with it right now. Thanks a lot for sharing and teaching me something
I just recommended this idea to my followers.
/:D
Taiwan_Bear
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@hkh222, Yeah, I saw it. Thank you!!
Fib time zone is just another indicator to help us analyse the price action.
leorio
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goood man.
lets crash and have a beautiful captiulation all the way down to 2.5k so we can fresh start. in my opinion, without shake outs of tooooo many weak hands and inexperienced childlike beahviour people, unfortunately, I believe crypto market will never recover in a genuine sense. lets shake them out with lots of blood. thats what i am waiting.
RealMcafee
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Hi Taiwan_bear! The correction has been very bullish in parts and it's rekt many a poor bear. I also thought that we'd go down in April, but hey, we're still here. You know Bloomberg published in Jan that it costs 6900 usd to mine Bitcoin in China. If that's true, it may not be a coincidence that we haven't really broken this level. You can check what the mean BTC price was in 2015 (Bitcoin bottomed for almost a year) with respect to average mining costs at that time.
I wouldn't be surprised if we go down to high 6000s again for a real bounce.
Taiwan_Bear
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@barclayjames, Much appreciated for the info. I will try to do some research as well.
I saw your chart under goldbug1's post, and I kind of agree of what you both said (the real crash might be happening next year or the year after).
leorio
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@Taiwan_Bear, bro i think goldbug is some joke and novice. someone who is ‘Always’ bullish is not an analyst. that’s a clown. simple.
mikehobart
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Appreciate the post bear! The apology is unnecessary but the breakdown of the TA is fantastic. Where can I set up the Fib Time Zones within TV?
Taiwan_Bear
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@TwiztdPickle, It's right next to the Fib retracement tool
PS sorry if my english is kind of messy