The current correction looks untypical from the elliot wave count on the micro level. If you go down to the hourly chart you can not count the waves on the current down move because it kind of violates the rules. To make it easy: there is always a bigger Elliot wave that we are in and thus we can assume that we are
  • in wave 4 down
  • before that final push up called wave 5
  • leading to the the major correction of the move since the low at 5700

Looking at the daily Ichimoku cloud it would be perfect to arrive at 11700 in early march to produce a new buy signal by crossing the cloud from below. To not violate any Elliot Wave rules, it would be nice to not violate the high of wave 1 which is residing at 9120. Luckily a 62% correction of wave 3 would bring us around the same area. So I would expect that to be the most likely scenario.

The price should push a little lower for tomorrows CME futures settlement date to around 9200-9300 USD to finally go up over the weekend entering the Ichimoku Cloud . This scenario is supported by the slow ichimoku line that acts as support around 8850 currently. Any break of this line would invalidate the scenario.

After going up and testing the cloud as well as 12000, most likely the price will correct again and revisit that orange line that was resistance before and now awaits a pullback. By that Time we may see 7500 again. From there on the ichimoku cloud can be taken in a storm and we can go on to see new highs.

To trade this the safe bet would be to wait for the price to finish wave 1 and after that for the pullback to the orange line. this is for multiple reasons:

  • pullback trades are among the safest bets
  • it's always most profitable to trade wave 3 of a elliot wave cycle
  • the big picture leads us to be careful

I published a elliot wave count earlier that goes all the way down from 20k to 5700 and played out perfectly. The idea was to find a count that makes it probable that the major correction is over and we enter a new cycle leading upwards. But there is a chance that we only had the first part of the correction done and now we are in the second. So we could also be in a bulltrap that can carry us to 15k and we catch the powerful C wave perfectly if we just wait for signs of reversal at a pullback to the orange line. Then we can be sure that wave B is finished and we have some people fomo back in to carry us higher.

The little fire that is lighted up by a minor wave 5 that is about to emerge before touching that orange line is nothing more than a risky play for a few percentages compared to the bigger picture chances. Bull scenario or bear scenario - the run from the orange line will be the time to buy. But don't forget to sell on the way up to stay safe. Buying at 8500 and selling at 13000 is close to 50% earnings and almost guaranteed either way. You won't find that often.
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