This is a quick sketch of a thought: What if Bitcoin is correcting like the bubble of Spring 2013 instead of the subsequent one in November? It's tough to say if we'e reached bottom yet. However, if we are indeed following the pattern of the last Block Reward + Bubble era then this era will have the Bitcoin price recovering from this correction over the next few months and then leading to a bull run possibly up to 100k/bitcoin before we see a possibly year long (or more) correction.
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Let's see if 4 is already in or if double bottom is needed.
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Evidence suggests good chance 4 is in. Fiat reserves incase of sharp decline not a bad idea. Also not a bad idea to sit on your hands until market begins to move.
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Careful selling into fear.
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Price resting on that lower mid channel line. A bounce here would be nice but would not guarantee end of bear trend.
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As it was written elsewhere, "I find it hard to believe that a growing institutional sentiment toward cryptocurrency / blockchain, will be the catalyst for a bearish market or full retracement "
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This would be a nice place for a bottom.
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Follow the blue path? :D
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A retest of that lower trend line around 4k is possible if momentum doesn't change soon for Bitcoin.
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Wave 4 in IMO
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Close to or nearly at bottom
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Based on this chart we have touched support and are ready to move up!
@Ero23, Hi, what is your reasoning behind that observation if I may ask?
thanks!
laparvel
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Great to see your update again, I am your big fan, I have been following you over one year.
Dav-
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btw instead of 4 this could be a 2 of 3
dmos62
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How do you account for that gap between the two impulse waves? It doesn't look like a correction. Shouldn't Wave 1 start earlier?
You23
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@dmos62, MTGOX sell off. US MARSHALL AUCTIONS, Uncertain Regulatory environment, Bad Exchange operators in general, Whale manipulation. We are in new waters now.
dmos62
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@Ero23, I was talking about your Elliot Wave Theory wave count. The gap between those two impulse waves should be a correction, i.e. a triangle or a three wave structure, but it doesn't fit those descriptions, so probably the second impulse wave you've marked starts earlier, on 2015-01-12 specifically. I'm a fan of your posts, keep it up.